Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

Regarding expenses, what will they be? Estimate? Is there a chance legal fees might be paid by the USG/FHFA/F&F?
I believe JPS holders made a contingency deal where Hamish & Co will take 20? 25? 30%? Any way those expenses are paid/partly paid directly by the Defendants?
Assuming the contingency % is 'high' & must be paid by defendants, can these fees be negotiated downward? Do these (now) substantial contingency fees make it likely (or less likely, or no effect) that Hamish & Co would NOT want to appeal on behalf of Plaintiffs?
Who negotiated the contingency %?
Will this judgement be appealed by Defendants?
How long will it take b4 any $$$ is made available/payable to shareholders?
Does this judgement help, hurt, or have no effect on F&F exiting Conservatorship?
Are we reliant more than ever on Trump becoming President b4 any meaningful change in F&F's status (i.e. exit from Conservatorship)?

1) I don't know exactly what the lawyers' fees will be, but I have been assuming 25% as a ballpark. The money would come out of the pool that goes to shareholders.
2) I also don't know if the size of an award ($811M is pretty sizable) affects the percentage normally taken.
3) If the lawyers really do stand to make around $200M as things stand now (25% of $811M), I could see them being quite tempted to not appeal and take the money. However, they have a duty to protect the interests of the plaintiffs. If they think an appeal is worthwhile (and it should be, there should be far more to gain than lose) they will likely file it.
4) Yes, I expect the defendants to appeal.
5) The timeline for cash payment depends on if there is a settlement (at which point the payment would happen shortly thereafter) and if there are appeals, and how far those appeals go (just to the Appeals Court, or all the way to the Supreme Court). With one level of appeal I think the money would be paid around early 2025, and if it goes to the Supreme Court it could get pushed all the way into 2027.
6) I don't think the jury's verdict has any effect on FnF exiting conservatorship.
7) I think Trump is far, far more likely to accomplish recap/release if he wins than any other presidential candidate. However, in late 2025 Fannie will have enough net worth that (with the seniors gone) they could be released from conservatorship (with core capital equal to 2.5% of balance sheet assets) without having to raise outside capital. That means Treasury could convert its seniors into commons and capture as much equity as they want and wouldn't have to be worried about being diluted by a later capital raise. Freddie would hit that point in 2028. Both of those would be during the next presidential administration.
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