The common stocks' fair value was calculated with the adjusted annualized Q3 2023 EPS, adjusted for a Privatized Housing Finance System (no TCCA fees, no CRT expenses) and after unwinding the Separate Account plan (no Warrant, no SPS outstanding, $150B refund, ...), besides fully reserved for expected losses, ALLL (adjusted for the Benefit/Provision for loan losses)
It was calculated a PER 14 times.
On top of that, it was assumed that the Accounting Standard of the upfront g-fee, is changed, so the fair value captures the value of the Deferred Income, net ($51.2 billion combined)
Then, you can agree or disagree about whether Q3 2023 was an earnings report representative to calculate such fair value, should it need further adjustments, because we had strong Derivative gains (partially offset with investment losses and fair value losses) and a high yield on reverse repo operations with the Fed. On the other hand, low amortization of deferred income with lack of refinancings and, in a takeover, absence of control premium that otherwise would be. So, pretty much it stays as is.
There is also a fair value in the case of Takings: adjusted Common Equity as of September 30, 2023.
And, finally, a target price or how the stocks should trade on the stock market or heading to, in the absence of takeover or takings, with a forward PER 14x (with the estimated 2024 EPS)
Those that throw numbers, like $22.5 for FNMA, likely are JPS holders that can't withstand that a common stock is valued at a price much higher than their JPSs.
