Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

I guess you are still refusing to show the math behind your $38 share price estimate if the warrants are exercised but no other dilution takes place.

Well you can assign a 100% probability on the AIG model if you like.

I don't. I am currently putting a 75% probability on the seniors being eventually exchanged for commons. AIG and Calabria's book show that not only should that probability not be zero, it should exceed 50% (using Bayesian priors) given the lack of contrary data points.

I personally think this is going to be uncharted territory for the resolution.

A pretty vague statement. There is a lot of room between "exactly like AIG" and "not at all like AIG", and everything but the most extreme end of the latter can truthfully be called "uncharted territory".

Hence, I invest on my thesis and you can invest on yours.

Naturally.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything, in case you were wondering. I continue this discussion for my benefit and for that of those who have thanked me in the past for my posts.