Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)

[Joseph_K]

Hi, Sarepta iHub ghost town. From Barron's:

The upside/downside trade-off for Sarepta Therapeutics [SPRT] is attractive going into the end of the year. We are coming up on results of what could be a confirmatory study of its gene-therapy drug for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. This could be a seminal moment for what has been a controversial stock, and provide a boost, albeit moderate, for the biotech space as a whole, especially
as the index is trending toward multiyear lows.
There appears to be two ways to win with Sarepta. One way is that the Phase 3 study shows an improvement for patients, even if very modest, but enough to illustrate a trend. This represents the base case or perhaps the most likely outcome, given the patient
population, but would also ensure that the gene therapy, which has already been conditionally approved by the Food and Drug
Administration (pending this trial), remains on the market. Best case, the trial demonstrates a statistically significant difference in the drug's favor versus the placebo, and Sarepta might address a larger market, including many patients who would otherwise not have access to the therapy. I believe that a positive trial would move the stock, now around $120, to or above $200 a share. If the drug fails to show even a modest benefit and investors remove gene therapy from models, a worst-case outcome could result in a stock price of around $60, depending on other assumptions. In the biotech sector, we are used to volatility.