But too much 'thinking' is probably bad for our long term investment results. For someone like Buffett, thinking and analysis has been a full time job, and he's really good at it. But for the rest of us mere mortals, Buffett's advice is to just use the S+P 500 index. So he's basically saying 'don't think, put it on autopilot'. John Bogle came to a similar conclusion for the vast majority of us investors -- don't try to pick stocks / sectors or time the market, just use the broad index, and controlling risk can be achieved via the asset allocation model.
It's simple, so why don't more investors do it? Two reasons - 1) it's boring, there's no 'action', and 2) investing has become an interesting hobby that is hard to give up.
But a way around this to continue following stocks / sectors for fun / interest, just don't use real money, or only small amounts. The bulk of one's stock allocation is in the broad index, which is subject to the allocation model, ie - 10%, 20%, 30%, etc. Anyway, that's the conclusion I came to, but would have been much better to have this approach decades ago.
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