Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK)

[thermo]

Strategics generally don't like uncertainty. The folks making the decisions have more downside for mistakes than upside for great wins. So, they are pretty risk adverse, and I don't see that as an option here.

I have though all along that, after commercial sales are established, this is a clear buyout if revenue growth is solid.

The company is cutting expenses to extend their runway, I'm sure. So $16M/qtr burn probably goes to $8M/qtr. Once they renegotiate the debt maturing at year end, then they should have runway sometime in 2Q'24.

They put themselves in a tight spot, no doubt. But I can see a pathway back if they're smart. This, unfortunately, was self-inflicted mostly. The drug does work.

This is just the kind on investment I've done many times. I'm pretty sure the company doesn't want to dilute down here and will wait until the Type A meeting to develop a plan. Some additional capital will have to be raised but the amount will depend on the Type A. My current estimate is about 30% dilution so, simple math is take everything you thought before and multiply by 70%.