Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[DaJester]

"My prediction is based on hard facts"

I'm not disputing your hard facts. There is a massive gap in the CET1 capital. I get it, we are all watching it grow slowly like some doomsday clock.

What I'm disputing is your prediction of the future based on those facts. You have no idea how the capital will get filled. You have no idea if the threshold will stay the same 3 months from now, 3 years from now, or by the time they are released. You don't know what the economy or housing market will do. You don't know if FHFA will offer Treasury a conversion. You don't know if Treasury will want it. You don't know who will head the Treasury 3 years from now. You don't know if the funding structure of FHFA is deemed unconstitutional. You don't know if any of the FHFA decisions made previously will get unwound. You don't know who the next President will be and what direction he/she wants to give on the GSE problem. You don't know if Congress will get off its ass and do something. You don't know if there will be additional legal wins for shareholders.

You have a math model based on current state that reaches 2040, without any variable inputs.

That being said, I do appreciate all your insights and thought process. What you outline is possible and you supply ample references, and it helps investors weigh the risks. I've been reading your posts for years even though I never posted until recently. Instead of disagreeing with you in my head, I get to type it out. It's actually exhausting, I don't know how you manage to articulate your position and respond very thoroughly to everything :)