Al-Arabiya analysts puzzle over Iraqi cleric Al-Sadr's hideout
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21 February 2007 (BBC Monitoring)
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[Dubai Al-Arbaiyah in Arabic at 1910 gmt on 19 February carries live in another episode of "From Iraq" in its "Panorama" feature a live 50-minute panel discussion on the Baghdad security plan and then on Muqtada al-Sadr's whereabouts. The programme is presented by Muntaha al-Ramhi who moderates the discussion.
Al-Ramhi begins by saying that six days have passed since the Iraqi government launched its new security plan in Baghdad to contain the violence which is continuing in the city to this day. She says a US Army spokesman has said the plan "has succeeded so far in reducing violence, although he was anxious not to raise expectations that the plan will achieve a fast magic solution."
A 3-minute report by Najah Muhammad Ali follows in which he reports on the latest bombings, and with a Google map of Baghdad explains that the plan divides Baghdad into 10 districts. Ali says: "The plan divides Baghdad into ten districts and one of its most important aims is to curb the influence of militias accused of carrying out sectarian cleansing and to stop the violence in Baghdad. One of these districts is Al-Rasafah Side, which now has a Shi'i majority. It includes the neighbourhoods of Al-Sadr, Al-Talibiyah, Al-Sha'b, Ur, Al-Ubaydi, and Baghdad al-Jadidah, in addition to neighbourhoods west of Qanat al-Jaysh, including Al-A'zamiyah neighbourhood, which is inhabited by a Sunni majority. The plan also includes mixed Sunni-Shi'i areas in which the Sunnis used to constitute 30-40 per cent of its population, including Al-Sulaykh, Tunis neighbourhood, Al-Karradah, Al-Jadiriyah, and Palestine Street. The neighbourhoods whose inhabitants have been displaced include Al-Saydiyah, Al-Muwasalat, Al-Amil, and Al-Bayya in southwestern Baghdad on the Al-Karkh Side. The plan is concerned with other Shi'i neighbourhoods, including Al-Hurriyah, Al-Shu'lah, Al-Tubji, in addition to Al-Kazimiyah.The security plan also focuses on the Al-Karkh Side, which has a Sunni majority. It includes the neighbourhoods of Al-Adl, Al-Mansur, Al-Ghazaliyah, Al-Amiriyah, and Al-Dawrah. Baghdad neighbourhoods with a Sunni majority, such as Abu Ghurayb, Al-Khadra, Al-Amiriyah, Al-A'zamiyah, and Al-Dawrah witnessed displacement and the security plan seeks the return of the displaced persons to their areas. The plan tries to preserve those neighbourhoods that remained a symbol of Sunni-Shi'i coexistence, including Al-Bayya, Al-Dawrah, Abu Dishir, and Al-Za'faraniyah south of the capital, and those neighbourhoods with mixed population, including Al-Talibiyah and Al-Bunuk in northeastern Baghdad, in addition to Baghdad al-Jadidah east of the capital." A video of soldiers searching apparently empty buildings and masked soldiers arresting blindfolded suspects is shown.
Al-Ramhi says that Iyad Allawi "has prepared an alternative political programme...if the security plan should fail."
Al-Ramhi introduces the first batch of guests on the programme. They are Iraqi Planning Minister Ali Baban, via satellite from Baghdad, and Walid al-Zubaydi, a political analyst, via satellite from Damascus. Asked if the 18 February bombings were a "deadly blow" to the plan, Baban says it was not expected the plan can be implemented without difficulties.
Baban says it's still early to pass judgments on the plan and it is the results that are important. He says there is no choice other than to fight "a battle of destiny with terror which threatens our lives and the destiny of our country." He notes that the Iraqi armed forces are shouldering the greater part of the burden in the plan "and not the US forces as it is rumoured among some people."
Asked about information regarding the number of the US forces deployed by the plan in Baghdad, Baban says he has no information but the US forces have been "partially reinforced" in Baghdad. He adds the "Iraqis are happy to see their Iraqi army return to the streets and rise to their help and to safeguard their security" and the image of military personnel in Iraq is always associated with patriotism, loyalty and professionalism.
Turning to Al-Zubaydi in Damascus, Al-Ramhi asks him his view of the security plan and he says: "It is the first time the US Administration talks about a plan and acknowledges that it may fail" and expects it to fail in advance. He says he believes rosy dreams and optimism are of no use in connection with Iraq's reality. He cites as evidence what happened to the Iraqi girl Sabrin al-Janabi when 'peacekeeping forces' -which belong to Iraqi forces of which this or that side are proud -raided her home and took her to their headquarters where she was raped in turn by soldiers. He adds that two days ago the occupying forces raided the village of Al-Dab near Al-Rutbah late at night and used bayonets in killing four youths and cutting them up without using weapons. Describing their bodies, one of their relatives says "it is as though they were eaten by wolves."
Told that the Iraqi government always refers to "Saddamists and takfiris [those who hold others to be unbelievers"] and asked if there are other quarters which could seek to foil the security plan, Al-Zubaydi says: The security plan seeks to implement what the occupying forces want, and as analysts know the sole aim of the occupying forces since mid-2004 has been to destroy the resistance. He asserts that both the political process and the military efforts aim to destroy the resistance, but "everyone knows" that the US forces are becoming desperate because daily their morale is falling while the Iraqi resistance "is becoming stronger, more organized, and better armed." He adds that the Americans are trying to employ Iraqis to destroy the resistance.
Asked if the plan should fail are there other options or is the option Allawi's proposal, Baban says no one is saying the security plan is all what we have and that it is the security solution that will end Iraq's problems. He says all realize that it is more a political issue than a security issue, but the security issue has to be resolved. He asks Al-Zubaydi what kind of resistance is that which target innocent people, adding: "Perhaps my stand is not far removed form his regarding the resistance directed at the foreign occupation, but I do not justify the perpetration of crimes against civilians."
Asked to respond, Al-Zubaydi says anyone who kills an innocent Iraqi is a criminal and cannot be part of the resistance. He recalls the early period of the occupation when the resistance was operating on a wide scale and asks why it did not target citizens, and adds: The fact is that those who bomb markets, kill civilians, and innocent Iraqis are part of the US plan to create chaos and fear and to attempt to distort the resistance's image.
After a 2-minute break Al-Ramhi, quoting Sami al-Askari, adviser to the Iraqi prime minister, says the "United States has fabricated Muqtada al-Sadr's disappearance. Al-Askari had said Al-Sadr had visited Iran and the Americans depicted the issue as "an escape and connected it with the security plan," while Iran said Al-Sadr is not in the country, and his supporters said he did not go to Iran in the first place. This part of the programme is headlined "Where did he disappear?"
In a three-minute report on video showing Al-Sadr and his supporters, Al-Arabiya correspondent Diyar al-Umari, refers to conflicting information "first initiated by the Americans who said that he is in Iran with some Al-Mahdi Army commanders." Al-Umari says that perhaps by flying a test balloon the Americans wanted to know where Al-Mahdi has gone and to make him show himself. Al-Sadr's office said he is in a "safe and secret place" which should not be divulged because Al-Sadr "could be targeted by the US forces." Al-Umari refers to press reports that Al-Sadr went to Iran secretly and is at the home of his cousin, Ja'far al-Sadr, in Qom, together with his aide, Riyad al-Nuri. Al-Umari asks why this insistence by the Americans on raising the issue when Al-Sadr is not wanted by the judicial authorities?
To discuss this issue, Al-Ramhi hosts -in addition to Baban -Adam Earley, "senior adviser" in the US State Department, via satellite from London, and Salam al-Maliki, former Iraqi transport minister, via satellite from Basra.
Asked why this US insistence to know Al-Mahdi's whereabouts, Earley -speaking in English with an Arabic translation superimposed on his voice - says Al-Sadr's whereabouts "aren't that important. What is important to us is what he did." He says Al-Sadr can support the political process and national reconciliation from wherever he may be, be it Baghdad or Tehran. He adds: "We ask him to tell the Al-Mahdi Army not to kill Iraqis but to strengthen the spirit of national reconciliation."
Asked if there is a connection in the talk about Al-Sadr and the security plan, Earley says he cannot say, but the security plan aims to identify the elements that launch attacks on Iraqi civilians, and those involved in terrorist activity must be punished. He says as a leader of a political and religious movement Al-Sadr must act within the confines of the law, "but clearly he did not do so, and that has caused some worry to the Iraqi government and its friends."
Turning to Salam al-Maliki in Basra, Al-Ramhi refers to reports that perhaps Al-Mahdi has gone to Iran or perhaps his location will not be announced because of fears he will be pursued by the US forces. Al-Maliki says Al-Sadr's whereabouts is not the affair of the US forces or the affair of any quarter or government. He says Al-Sadr is not a terrorist for the US forces to pursue him" adding the prime minister said the government does not plan to take action against the Al-Sadrist movement.
Asked about Iran's denial of Sami al-Askari's assertion that Al-Sadr is in Iran, Al-Maliki says: The big media campaign launched by the US Administration to justify its failure in Iraq or to hold some political figures responsible for what is happening in Iraq had many consequences. Some politicians made irresponsible and inaccurate statements. Where did the information that he is in Iran or has left Iraq come from? Iran denies, and we say Moqtada al-Sadr is in Iraq and is in some place. However, two months ago we received information that Al-Sadr is being targeted, and we asked him to change his location and to take security measures. However, I ask the US spokesman: The United States has appointed itself a judge and a police overseeing the peoples of the world, but who will call America to account for its crimes in all world countries, and specifically in Iraq?
He says the US Administration is responsible for all the disasters and destruction in Iraq because of its occupation and because it gave the terrorists the opportunity to enter Iraq. He adds: "The militias of US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad are killing the Iraqi people, but who will call Zalmay and the US Administration to account for what they have done?"
Asked if it is possible that Al-Sadr and some of his supporters have left Iraq for President Talabani had said Al-Sadr asked his supporters to leave Iraq to ensure the security plan's success, Baban says he agrees with those who say that the matter does not warrant all this discussion, and perhaps the coming few days will clear the ambiguity in this affair.
Asked how was it possible to leak reports on the security plan whereby one side sends its militias abroad or hides them until the implementation of the security plan is completed, as though the security plan is directed at one particular faction, Baban says the security plan is not a surprise or a sudden development, for the United States and the Iraqi government had talked about it and it became known to all Iraqis and not just to the Al-Sadrist movement. He adds there have been no leaks regarding the plan's details.
Asked how should the Iraqi president's statement that Al-Sadr's militias should leave Iraq to ensure the plan's success be construed, Baban says perhaps it can be understood to mean that there are some internal political or perhaps "regional" understandings and arrangements on this matter because the security plan was expected.
Al-Ramhi then asks her guest in Tehran, Hasan Hashemian, a political analyst, via satellite, if Iran's denial that Al-Sadr is in the country is for the media, or is it a political denial, Hashemian says it is a genuine denial because Al-Sadr does not need to hide in Iran, and as the Americans say, he has 60,000 fighters in Iraq, and he has support among the tribes and in the cities of southern Iraq.
Asked about Sami al-Askari's statement, Hashemian says the assumption closer to the truth is that Moqtada al-Sadr is in Iraq. He says the United States provoked the issue because following the uproar over the death squads it wanted to appear to be pursuing Al-Sadr, "but in fact the Americans do not want a confrontation with Moqtada al-Sadr. They just declare they are pursuing him as something to offer the Sunni side."
Asked about an alternative to the security plan if it fails, Earley says more time is needed to judge the plan, and it's too early to talk about alternatives.
Told that Condoleezza Rice welcomed an alternative plan drawn up by Allawi -that provides for inclusion of Arab and Muslim forces and a change of government - if present measures do not succeed, Earley says this is new to him, and as far as he knows Rice did not say anything about this matter.
Asked about the alternative plan, Al-Maliki says time is needed to create security services capable of controlling the hotbeds of tension, and the problem is that the Iraqi army and security forces are not capable, and that is a problem caused by the US forces which do not equip and support the Iraqi army. He says that is deliberate in order to keep Iraq in a state of tension and instability.
Asked if the US conditions to provide further support for the Iraqi security forces include the need for the Iraqi government "to cleanse" its security forces, Baban says these are not US conditions but Iraqi conditions. He says "it is a national Iraqi demand that the security forces represent all Iraqis and to be removed from sectarian and party influences." He says he agrees that rebuilding the Iraqi armed forces is the beginning of the solution to the Iraqi crisis.
Told there are many Iraqi complaints that the US forces are negligent in equipping the Iraqi forces, Earley says so far "we have trained more than 100,000 Iraqi soldiers and we equip them. The question is how much equipment do the Iraqi forces need to use productively?" He adds that is not the problem, for the problem lies in "coordination, organization, and determination and that is why the security plan has been designed."
Source: Al-Arabiya TV, Dubai
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