The attempt to discredit Adam Aron and Bankrupt $AMC has failed! **Adam Aron** @CEOAdam
Here you go haters!
$AMC $APE #APE #AMC
**AMC's Prime Lending Bank** **PLB**: Banks who have lent AMC billions. Eg. Citibank, others. Afaik, These loans are usually made as Bonds. More on this later.
**Short Hedge Funds** **SHF**: No Introduction needed. Eg. Point72, Shit-a-Del, etc.
**Banks selling Total Return Swaps** **TRS-B**: These banks/financial institutions have enabled rampant short selling by selling TRS products to SHFs. These banks may overlap with PLBs - for example, Citi themselves may have sold TRSs to SHFs.
**Market Makers****MM** : Shitadel, Virtu (Liquidity Fairies).
My understanding of events
1. PLBs lent money to $AMC as *bonds(1)*. PLBs also shorted AMC - maybe their standard practice - to ensure they make money in case AMC goes bankrupt. Double Dipping.
2. Since 2018, other banks and SHFs started shorting $AMC. When they ran out of shares, they started issuing TRSs to SHFs and naked-shorted AMCs in collusion with MMs.
3. When $AMC hit its peak in 2021, there were no shares left to cover, except for the legal shares that AMC and Wanda sold. No one therefore covered fully.
4. Thereafter, the PLBs were aware that $AMC still may be unable to pay off debt when the time comes around in 2026, 2027, and 2029.
These are the major bond maturity dates coming up
.
5. Now that $AMC has acquired the ability to dilute, issue NEW shares, and has zero chance of going Bankrupt, the PLBs will get out of their short positions.
But they won't get out at a *loss*. They therefore will drive the price to ATL (All-Time-Lows) or near ATL first.
At which point they'll buy the shares from $AMC, cover their positions, and go NET LONG.
6. Once NET LONG, they will sell their shares to the next set of TRS-Bs so they can cover their shorts.
And the next TRS-B will sell to the next TRS-B to cover their shorts. but the buying and selling action is what will drive AMC to ATHs again. 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Margin calls will happen. Banks and/or SHF will collapse.
Just like Credit Suisse, Bill Hwang, and Archaegos.
Things will probably go out of control.
7. They'll do this as many times as necessary to cover and close out their synthetics.
Assuming 3-6 billion synthetics, and a volume of 300M a day, it will take 10-20 days for this whole thing to play out.
But also may take less time depending on the amount of churning that happens. No idea.
8. During the peak, $AMC will dilute another chunk of its new shares.
If Adam Aron plays his cards right, he'll dilute in the 600-700s.
Can it go higher?
Of course, probably will.
But taking an average dilution of 600-700, AA will wipe out its debt with 20-25 million shares, generating 12-16 billion dollars.
**The Debt**
Everyone says $AMC has 4 billion in debt.
But no one says what that debt means, how it's supposed to be paid back, when it's supposed to be paid back, what'll happen if they don't pay it back, etc.
Here is a list of the outstanding bonds that have to be paid.
So far, $AMC is just managing to pay the interest payments on these bonds.
However, when maturity time comes along, the entire *principal* amount of the bond has to be paid back.
Not sure if part of these principal amounts have been paid back.
I guess if anyone knows they can comment.
As you can see - by 2024, 2025, and 2026, we need to pay around 1.5 billion dollars to bondholders in addition to the interest payments.
But if these bonds are paid off - $AMC would save 💥230M dollars a year - and that would go towards profits.
But if the principal amounts are not paid in time, $AMC would have to renegotiate new bonds, and if bondholders want to, they can bankrupt the company.
Now you see why this was so important.
The Adam Aron haters and no-voters conveniently kept the facts from the public. I bet they knew everything
.
Bullish
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Please always do your own DD on all stocks and never let emotions rule the trade; always have a plan or plan to fail
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