“A few minutes ago, I got a call from Kirko the IMS or IQVIA data came out for the month of May, we just launched in April and we didn't have that much material to launch, because we were making everything for Lannett. And for the month of April, for the [Adderrall] IR, were on command with 6.68% of the market. I definitely expect that number to improve.”
IF this is an accurate annualized number, that means Elite pulls in around $22,378,000 on the Adderrall IRs alone.
Per the intro, Adderrall IR is a $335M market. Although we don’t know exact numbers because Elite doesn’t break down financials by each drug, we know the lion’s share of Elite’s revenues are from the Adderrall IR/ER products. Nasrat also expects the Adderrall ER revenues to increase by 1.5 - 2x next year, likely a combination of Prasco/Burel + Kirko’s efforts.
Now let’s think about the biggest upcoming products - Oxy, NM #2, and NM #3.
Theoretically:
Capturing the same amount of Oxycontin market share (6.68% of $517M) = +$34,535,600/yr.
Capturing the same amount of Concerta market share (6.68% of $1.15B) = +$76,820,000/yr.
Capturing the same amount of Vyvanse market share (6.68% of $2.53B) = +$169,004,000/yr.
^ This completely discounts any market share we will gain from the dopamine agonist and the antimetabolite products that are likely to be approved in late Oct 2023 and late Dec/Jan 2024, respectively.
Even if these above estimates are wildly high, think about this. If Elite gets just 25% of the above numbers + existing revenues, that puts us north of $100M in revenues per year. 2 of the 3 NM products *should* be approved by or before EOY 2024.
