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nez

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Alias Born 01/19/2006

nez

Re: amechi post# 37378

Wednesday, 02/21/2007 8:34:00 AM

Wednesday, February 21, 2007 8:34:00 AM

Post# of 84232
Amechi and EVERYONE,
First, since you a professor and most likely have an analytical mind and you made the observation which inspired me to go "web surfing" in search of a connection to level II, MMs and "smoke and mirrors" they might use, I give you this information and links. I personally don't have the experience to "grasp" it and be able to explain it in a way all here might benefit from. I feel very strongly that there is a good chance there are many here who can help the rest of us understand this information.
Also there has been much talk and speculation about DILUTION. Well it appears that MMs have the ability and do frequently DILUTE! LAST PART OF POST
Those who would have the board think just the company can do this are blowing smoke, IMO and based on the last part of this or S-8 Dilution. When reading this, I found many familiar things.

I encourage everyone to try and understand this and hopefully a concerted effort will yield important understanding for us that may explain things like yesterday's activity.

Follow these links. There is a lot here and many threads but if folks can get a handle on the MMs behavior they might feel less apprehensive and see that the MMs really play a "not so innocent" part in the stocks movement.

Maybe many heads can figure this out and how it applies to us.
I posted the 1/2007 report and I think many will see some familiar things. 45 mil + shares traded by one MM! IMO, that has to have an effect.

Apparently, it is not just companies who dilute as many here would have us believe. I may be misinterpreting this but check out the last section of this post. Seems clear as day other entities cause "dilution." I KNOW THIS IS A REPEAT OF PREVIOUS THOUGHTS BUT IMO, THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT.
MAKE SURE YOU READ LAST PART;
V) S-8 Dilution. I pasted and made it bold. It is towards the last part. All interesting and may explain days like Tuesday. I don't have the experience or time at this point to figure it out exactly......but I will!!!
JMO and FWIW, lets crack this information!!!,
(no proofing done)

Nez

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14938


Found on link:
http://www.otcbb.com/asp/tradeact_mv.asp?SearchBy=issue&Issue=atwt&SortBy=volume&Month=1....

February 21, 2007


Symbol:
MarketsQuoteLevel IIChartsNewsFilingsStreamer

Monthly Share Volume Report
Select a different report by entering an issue or MPID: Sort By: Report Date:
Issue Market Participant

Volume Issue/MPID

Jan 2007 Dec 2006 Nov 2006 Oct 2006 Sep 2006 Aug 2006 Jul 2006 Jun 2006 May 2006 Apr 2006 Mar 2006 Feb 2006



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ATWT - ATWEC TECH INC
Page of 1

January 2007 December 2006 Year-to-Date
Volume Rank % Volume Rank % Volume Rank %

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Total Share Volume 157,600,094

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ETRD
E*TRADE CAPITAL MARKETS LLC 58,962,982 1 37 33,775,464 3 21 58,962,982 1 37
NITE
KNIGHT EQUITY MARKETS, L.P. 45,957,698 2 29 37,435,026 2 24 45,957,698 2 29
SBSH
CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS INC. 38,878,902 3 24 57,101,545 1 36 38,878,902 3 24
UBSS
UBS Securities LLC (UBSS) 8,292,212 4 5 20,738,739 4 13 8,292,212 4 5
SSGI
SETON SECURITIES GROUP, INC. 5,003,300 5 3 1,076,700 6 <1 5,003,300 5 3
JEFF
JEFFERIES & COMPANY, INC. 460,000 6 <1 765,000 8 <1 460,000 6 <1
HDSN
HUDSON SECURITIES,INC. 35,000 7 <1 1,000,000 7 <1 35,000 7 <1
FRAN
WM. V. FRANKEL & CO., INCORPORATED 5,000 8 <1 - - - 5,000 8 <1
VERT
THE VERTICAL GROUP 5,000 8 <1 - - - 5,000 8 <1

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EXPLORE LEVEL II

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IV) MM Behavior On Level II

Example of an ax who is selling:

When the market is rallying, the stock has a hard time moving higher, seemingly hitting a wall every time. And every time the wall seems to have the same initials and yet, when the strength subsides, the stock has no trouble falling. And funny enough, the ax seems to be following the stock down. That's where Level II comes into play. You have now found the missing link per se. You can see around the corner and start to see patterns. MM AX is on ask - it means he is driving price down - not good for us because we are buying and not shorting the stock (can't short OTCBB).

The ax seems to be following the stock down, he's killing the stock on the ask! If this behavior is recognized what would be the appropriate course of action? Going long the declines or selling the rallies?

Answer: selling the rallies. Since we can't on OTCBB and Upside is limited every time the stock tries to advance. Instead of trading against the ax and hoping that the buyers will overwhelm him, it is much smarter to sell with the ax and watch the stock fall as buyers pull away. Hence you would short it. The only kind of buying which should be going on is the covering of short positions as necessary. Work with the ax to your advantage.

Example of finding the dilutor on RWNT:

Input RWNT into monthly share report. Remember focus on top 5 spots. Don't count wholesalers. VERT is the dilutor. Explanation: Look at April. Then look at May. Nothing in April. Then he dumped 57mil shares in May. You can even go back to March and he wasn't even a listed MM. So he came on in April and then he started his selling. Keep in mind that RWNT is extreme and you're not always going to see that.

Example of MM supporting PPS stock northward:

Let's say that a stock (shell) has been lying quietly at $.25 bid $.50 offered. A limit order comes into one of the MMs to buy at $.50 for a thousand shares. Prior to this trade that MM may be "flat" (neither long nor short any shares). He fills the order and is now short 1,000 shares. He may raise his bid hoping to find a seller to "flatten" out his position. But before he realizes it a wave of buyers have come in and cleared out all the $.50 offers. Now the stock is $.50 bid .75 offered. Here comes that "Big" firm he just sold the 1,000 shares to at .50 with another bid for 1000 at .75. He makes this print. Now he is short 2,000 at an average of .625. The market keeps moving and now its .75 bid 1.00 offered. Now he has to make a decision. Just like investors, MM Hate to take a loss. So 9 times out of 10 he will now sell 2000 at 1.00 making him short 4000 but with an average .81. At this time he would love to see a seller at .75 so he can cover his short and make a few but instead the market keeps moving up. Now it is 1.00 to 1.25 and here comes the buyer again at 1.25. He doesn't want to lose the call so now he needs to sell 4,000 at 1.25 to keep his break even point above the bid. Now he is short 8,000. Market moves up to 1.25 bid 1.50 offer here comes the buyer now he feels he must sell 8000 here because "stocks don't go up forever". Now he is short 16,000. And so on and so on. If the stock keeps moving up, before he realizes it he could be short 50k or 100k shares (depending how big his bank is). Finally the market closes for the day and on paper he may look all right in that his "break even" price may be around the closing price. But now he has to figure out how to entice sellers so he can cover this short. It is important to note that if this happened to one MM it has probably happened to most all of them.

Some ways MM's entice sellers:

1. Run the stock up with a "tight spread" in a fast market, then "open" up the spread to slow down the buying interest. After it has "cooled off" for a little while lower the offer below the last trade right after a small piece trades on the offer then tighten the spread so that the sellers feel they can take a "quick profit" by "hitting the bid" on the tight spread. Once the selling starts the MM's will walk it down quickly by only making small prints on the way down with the tight spread.

2. Another way is by running the stock up in the morning, averaging up their short then use the above technique to walk it down in the afternoon. Hopefully, after doing this for several days, it will demoralize the buyers. The volume will dry up and the sellers will materialize thinking that the game is over. Contrary to popular opinion, MM usually Do Not Cover in Fast moving markets either Up or Down if they are short. They Short More. They usually try to cover after the frenzy is out of the market. There are many other techniques they use but the above are the most popular.

These techniques work about 9 times out of 10 particularly in a BB market. However, that is because 9 out of 10 BB stocks are BS. Remember what I said above. Most MM's don't have a clue as to the value of a Company until they get trapped.


Continued...
__________________




Re: EXPLORE LEVEL II

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V) S-8 Dilution

Look in the filings of a particular stock for S-8's. The filings aren't that bad of a dilution, some can even be employee stock options. The MM ax will remain on the ask until the S-8 share selling is completed. The price at which they sell isn't important since they are shares TO BE SOLD, the ax won't be looking to BARGAIN SELL THEM.

Once the ax seller steps off ask and starts supporting the bid, look for a run upwards. You will see a lot of market maker shifting as well as MM's need to get ready for stock to reverse into the opposite direction (upwards). You usually want to buy a little right before the S-8 is completed to benefit from such runs.

S-8 share selling doesn't always drive the price down as opposed to any other form of dilution.

Example of an S-8 dilution done smart : BMIC was diluting ONEV, but he did it right and it still ran hard with him selling the whole way up. Look up BMIC's monthly share report on ONEV (APRIL 04). *


VI) Key Level II Players:

TOP 5 MOST IMPORTANT (typically out of dilution) : NITE, ETRD, SCHB, TDCM & ARCA.

NITE & SCHB are wholesalers, TDCM a retailer, ETRD a retail ECN and ARCA an ECN.

NITE : This is the king MM of the OTC. He intimides traders and other MMs use that to their advantage knowing that he scares them. That's why NITE is the shaker on most stock runs; he is the most common ax. NITE could be on the ask all the time, he could be leading a dip scaring sellers to his buddies SCHB and TDCM on the bid.

TDCM : Retailer MM, you love him on the bid.

Biggest OTCBB ECNs : GNET, TRAC & DATA - you love them on bids also.

Other ECNs : ARCA, BRUT, BTRD, INCA, INTL, ISLD, REDI

Big Shorters : JIMK, POND, GNET or ARCA (anyone can use GNET, even other MMs because it's an ECN).

Wholesalers : ETRD, HRZG, MASH, NITE, SHWB

Top Retail Dilutors : ACAP, AGIS, BAMM, BMIC, CHIG, CLYP, FANC, FRAN, JIMK, MAYF, NATL, PERT, SACM, UCAP, VERT, VFIN


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That's it for Level II, always keep learning!

Sincerely,

RG

a big thank you goes to ATS for all the help on this



*** Also read JP's explanation on L2 http://tinyurl.com/4wap3 ***

V) S-8 Dilution

Look in the filings of a particular stock for S-8's. The filings aren't that bad of a dilution, some can even be employee stock options. The MM ax will remain on the ask until the S-8 share selling is completed. The price at which they sell isn't important since they are shares TO BE SOLD, the ax won't be looking to BARGAIN SELL THEM.

Once the ax seller steps off ask and starts supporting the bid, look for a run upwards. You will see a lot of market maker shifting as well as MM's need to get ready for stock to reverse into the opposite direction (upwards). You usually want to buy a little right before the S-8 is completed to benefit from such runs.

S-8 share selling doesn't always drive the price down as opposed to any other form of dilution.

Example of an S-8 dilution done smart : BMIC was diluting ONEV, but he did it right and it still ran hard with him selling the whole way up. Look up BMIC's monthly share report on ONEV (APRIL 04). *


VI) Key Level II Players:

TOP 5 MOST IMPORTANT (typically out of dilution) : NITE, ETRD, SCHB, TDCM & ARCA.

NITE & SCHB are wholesalers, TDCM a retailer, ETRD a retail ECN and ARCA an ECN.

NITE : This is the king MM of the OTC. He intimides traders and other MMs use that to their advantage knowing that he scares them. That's why NITE is the shaker on most stock runs; he is the most common ax. NITE could be on the ask all the time, he could be leading a dip scaring sellers to his buddies SCHB and TDCM on the bid.

TDCM : Retailer MM, you love him on the bid.

Biggest OTCBB ECNs : GNET, TRAC & DATA - you love them on bids also.

Other ECNs : ARCA, BRUT, BTRD, INCA, INTL, ISLD, REDI

Big Shorters : JIMK, POND, GNET or ARCA (anyone can use GNET, even other MMs because it's an ECN).

Wholesalers : ETRD, HRZG, MASH, NITE, SHWB

Top Retail Dilutors : ACAP, AGIS, BAMM, BMIC, CHIG, CLYP, FANC, FRAN, JIMK, MAYF, NATL, PERT, SACM, UCAP, VERT, VFIN


------------------------------------------------------------------------

That's it for Level II, always keep learning!

Sincerely,

RG

a big thank you goes to ATS for all the help on this



*** Also read JP's explanation on L2 http://tinyurl.com/4wap3 ***











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