Nelson, S&P about 4% from all time high
To answer your question. Yes, this could be a bear market rally, even if new highs are made. Thing is, the only way to know if the last 10 months have been a bear market rally is to wait and see if the October 2022 lows of about 3500 on the S&P is retested. For me, my belief that we're in a bear market rally is based upon the combination of average valuations of the major averages, vs actual corporate earnings growth. Thing is, there has been zero corporate earnings growth for 2 years, and the only reason S&P earnings have even been flat is for higher selling prices from inflation. Going forward I believe things break down. That is with CPI coming down, corporations will have less pricing power. At the same time, because core inflation has only come down from 5.9% to 4.8% over the last year, the fed will keep the terminal rate likely at 5.5% or so for the next year or more. That will cause corporations to have higher interest rates. At the same time, the consumer is becoming stretched, and therefore consumer demand will wane. Nothing points to things getting better going forward for corporate earnings, as the market and so many analysts are suggesting.
