Hi Midas,
Only Friday's action I believe and be attributed to A/S emotions riding high.
In general though with regards the Market Cap and hence share price, I think this is the market looking at PLX as a show me the money situation.
Elfabrio is well and indeed approved in USA and EU, but the market may be looking at this taking into account the fact that Chiesi will be contending with Sanofi and Takeda. And while Elfabrio should be fine as clearly many of the current patients are not doing well on the current ERTs that Elfabrio ought very much to take good market share, but there isn't the proof yet, and the drug isn't launched yet.
Therefore I believe the market is waiting for proof of launch which really means sales can happen and then later to see the extent of those sales, before being truly confident that all will be well. Remember the market is highly averse to risk, especially I feel these days with the bear market we've been experiencing.
Let us note that PLX is not the only very recently approve product company to have the SP go down after approval. Recently Eyeniovia, Seres, Biomarin and Sarepta all are down since recent FDA approvals, and Seres is down despite a 125 million milestone payment from Nestle.
All these are in the same situation as PLX, people want to see if you can actual complete getting the product out and selling well.
I'm sure you will also not how despite RDHL having the best product in the world probably on H.Pylori, those sales have been slow on the uptake by general physicians (though it is the top prescribed branded product among gastroenterologist that are in the know).
This said the important difference with the RDHL situation is of course the fact that while h.pylori is common and physicians have many many products to choose from, that is not the case in Fabry, where Elfabrio is the only alternative ERT to Fabrazyme in the USA, but Elfabrio with definite better safety and probably better real world efficacy, and has shown in clinical trials to be better and Replagal in general. As well as this, the physicians are a small circle that all know each other and all know about Elfabrio, so sales should not be a problem at all.
Chiesi has really been a fantastic partner with 200 million already invested and probably another 100 million by the time launch is complete in USA and EU. They have every incentive to maximise sales too.
So that is my take on the market. And yes of course from our perspective PLX is worth far more than 135M market cap at the moment.
In fact, in addition to my post, it might be good to ask BooDog his/her thoughts, as he/she apparently is deciding to wait at the moment before getting in. So one might as BooDog, his/her rationales.
All the best,
Spidey
AI
