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Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) »» Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 27, 2023

Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 3371471 and is trading up about 1.71% for the year from last year's settlement of 3314725.

The Dow Jones Industrials is still in a bullish position on yearly level of our model suggesting the trend has not been reversed. The Dow Jones Industrials has been trading within last year's range, but the market is trading above last year's settlement of 3314725 settling currently at 3371471. The Dow Jones Industrials is in a neutral position on the quarterly short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. The Dow Jones Industrials is in a neutral position on the monthly short-term level of our model while the intermediate trend is bearish, the long-term is neutral. The Dow Jones Industrials is in bearish position on the daily short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

At present, this market has been rising for 2 months going into June reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 3458868 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 3258656. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 3290827.

Currently, this market has been rising for 13 years going into 2023 suggesting that this has been a bull market trend which was confirmed by electing all four of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low made back during 2009. Nevertheless, this market has been in a bullish postureGiven the length of this rally, there is a risk of a temprary high. Therefore, some caution is required so focus of the yearly turning points and the monthly timing models.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the Dow Jones Industrials included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2022, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Dow Jones Industrials, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 3387617 and support forming below at 3370878. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 12th at 3458868, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 13th. We have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 2.723% in a stark panic type decline.

Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of June 12th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 3425783 made back during the week of May 1st. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of January 9th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 3142982 made the week of March 13th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 3270451. Additional support is to be found at 3300619. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

After closing above last year's low of 2985630.

Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 7 months since the low established back in October 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 3263630 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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