Bigworld, Yes, a train wreck at some point, but the big question is when. As they say about bankruptcy - it happens 'gradually and then all at once'. So when does the 'all at once' part arrive? The 64 K question.
The debt/GDP has risen for decades. In 1980 it was 30%, By 1990 it hit 50%, then fluctuated to eventually reach the current monstrous 130% (and rising). It's clearly beyond the 'point of no return', but how much higher can it go and still maintain the US dollar as a suitable world reserve currency?. We could probably bumble along for some years, but the US' global policies are pushing the rest of the world into de-dollarization, so that will speed up the inevitable fall of the dollar system.
Still, the timeline is fuzzy, and there's no way for us small fry to know when the big unraveling will arrive. Going short too early is risky since there may be several more 'cycles' to go, periods where the stock market resumes its historic uptrend. In that case a 'perma-short' strategy backfires bigtime. Imo, better to stay nimble and opportunistic if you are venturing into the 'short side'.
---