Market Direction and Stock Trends

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US Dollar Index (USDX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 27, 2023

US Dollar Index closed today at 1042060 and is trading up about 0.66% for the year from last year's settlement of 1035220. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will decline further on a monthly level. This price action here in May is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 1044190 intraday and is still trading above that high of 1030580.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in US Dollar Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2017 and 2009 and 2005 and 2001 and 1994.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the US Dollar Index included a rally from 2011 moving into a major high for 2022, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the US Dollar Index, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 1036500.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 10th at 1007880, which was down 5 weeks from the high made back during the week of March 6th. We have been generally trading up for the past 6 weeks from the low of the week of April 10th, which has been a move of 3.602%.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Critical support still underlies this market at 1016439 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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