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Friday, May 26, 2023 2:42:42 PM
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Tumbles to 6-Month Low
By: Jennifer Nash | May 26, 2023
The May final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 59.2, down 4.3 (6.8%) from the April final. This morning's reading was above the forecast of 57.9.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels in the U.S. with regards to the economy, personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions, conducted by the University of Michigan. There are two reports released each month; a preliminary report released mid-month and a final report released at the end of the month.
Joanne Hsu, the director of surveys, made the following comments:
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. We've highlighted the value of the index at the start of each recession and also included a callout to the most recent 12 months. The current level of 59.2 is below the index's level at the start of all six recessions since the index's inception.
To put today's report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 30.5% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 29.6% below its geometric mean. The current index level is at the 3rd percentile of the 545 monthly data points in this series.
This indicator is somewhat volatile, with a 3.1 point absolute average monthly change. The latest data point saw a 4.3 point decrease from the previous month. For a visual sense of the volatility, here is a chart with the monthly data and a three-month moving average. The bottom half of the chart shows real GDP to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.
For comparison, here is a chart of the Conference Board's consumer confidence index (monthly update here). The Conference Board index is the more volatile of the two, but the broad pattern and general trends have been remarkably similar to the Michigan index.
And finally, the prevailing mood of the Michigan survey is also similar to the mood of small business owners, as captured by the NFIB business optimism Index (monthly update here).
Read Full Story »»»
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By: Jennifer Nash | May 26, 2023
The May final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 59.2, down 4.3 (6.8%) from the April final. This morning's reading was above the forecast of 57.9.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels in the U.S. with regards to the economy, personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions, conducted by the University of Michigan. There are two reports released each month; a preliminary report released mid-month and a final report released at the end of the month.
Joanne Hsu, the director of surveys, made the following comments:
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. We've highlighted the value of the index at the start of each recession and also included a callout to the most recent 12 months. The current level of 59.2 is below the index's level at the start of all six recessions since the index's inception.
To put today's report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 30.5% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 29.6% below its geometric mean. The current index level is at the 3rd percentile of the 545 monthly data points in this series.
This indicator is somewhat volatile, with a 3.1 point absolute average monthly change. The latest data point saw a 4.3 point decrease from the previous month. For a visual sense of the volatility, here is a chart with the monthly data and a three-month moving average. The bottom half of the chart shows real GDP to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.
For comparison, here is a chart of the Conference Board's consumer confidence index (monthly update here). The Conference Board index is the more volatile of the two, but the broad pattern and general trends have been remarkably similar to the Michigan index.
And finally, the prevailing mood of the Michigan survey is also similar to the mood of small business owners, as captured by the NFIB business optimism Index (monthly update here).
Read Full Story »»»
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