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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 20, 2023

S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 419198 and is trading up about 9.18% for the year from last year's settlement of 383950. Factually, this market has been rising for this month going into May reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 404828 while it is still trading above last month's close of 416948 implying near-term strength.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during March. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Tue. May 7, 2024. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the S&P 500 Cash Index included a rally from 1974 moving into a major high for 2022, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 416948.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 15th at 421291, which was up 31 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 10th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 421291 to 410986. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 15th reaching 421291 has exceeded the previous high of 419544 made back during the week of January 30th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 21 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

After closing above last year's low of 366271.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 419544 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during February. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 432528 back during August 2022. Critical support still underlies this market at 372320 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high.

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