Market Direction and Stock Trends

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:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 13, 2023

Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 3330062 and is trading up about 0.46% for the year from last year's settlement of 3314725. Factually, this market has been rising for this month going into May reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 3293750 yet it is trading below last month's close of 3409816.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during March. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in Dow Jones Industrials, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Tue. May 7, 2024. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the Dow Jones Industrials included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2022, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Dow Jones Industrials, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 3332537 and support forming below at 3324855. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of March 13th at 3142982, which was down 13 weeks from the high made back during the week of December 12th. This was a key week for at least a temporary low. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 3.348% in a stark panic type decline.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of May 1st reaching 3425783 failed to exceed the previous high of 3434232 made back during the week of January 9th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

After closing above last year's low of 2985630.

This market is trading beneath that high of December 2022 which was 3471228 by more than 2 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 2965310 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.

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