Thanks. Spideboy for your analysis of how market share may be achieved. I agree, assuming FDA approval. My thoughts continue to be with the 5 elements of revenues (initial sales of the substrate to Chiesi, regulatory milestones, commercial milestones, US royalties, & non-US royalties), and virtually no marketing expenses, with only1000 two-week dosed patients and 1000 once-a-month dosed patients 18 months in the future they will have the revenue stream that could very well generate $1.50 in net tax-free earnings per share. At a 15 multiple that suggests a price target of $22. This is with PLX getting on average 35% of the total revenues with Chiesi keeping the rest. In my thinking I have used about 75 million shares outstanding at that point. This would value PLX at about $1.6 billion at that point.
As to the current price volatility: I think it may be temporarily self-inflicted. Here is why: Selling more shares under the shelf registration in place with the SEC (and Wainwright). On 1/1/23 PLX had 53,790,167 shares outstanding. During the first quarter they sold 8,212,482 shares at an average price of $1.73 and raised $14.2 million. In early April after the quarter ended, they sold another 3.412,268 at an average price of $2.32 per share raising an additional $7.9 million. (see the 10Q) Looks like some profits are being realized (at least temporarily) regardless of the very favorable long-term outlook. In my view this too shall pass with the potential growth in the second half of the year.
Any other thoughts would be welcome.
