CHARTS_CCI_SYSTEM

[gdl]

Neat little package. trump is the same as all politicians? Like stating Hitler was just as bad as Chamberlain. Trump has exposed his nature from the start so it isn't as if we are shocked by him. The most outrageous part of all this is when people defend him by placing blame on others. And yet that blame, no matter what it is, what topic or infraction always pales in comparison to trumps. The comparisons are like putting jaywalkers in jail with serial killers. It IS that stark a comparison. So if you want to explain why someone that tips the scale in every category of horrendous behavior can be defended by lumping his behavior as common to others I can just as easily use Hitler as a common thread. INSANE!

As for the market, well the headlines are fab. Great earnings blew away expectations. Yup from an original 5% drop to 2% drop. this as the SP500 P/E went from 19 to 22. Seems we solved the problem of inflation costs and weak earnings as the street is miraculously calling for a 10 percent jump starting in 6 months. you see it i always 6 month away. But when asked how this will be accomplished the overwhelming answer is DISINFLATION of course. Every analyst that gives a favorable earnings picture unanimously call for the halt in rate hikes AND start of a reduction in rates all in the next 6 months!

The odds of that happening without causing a nasty recession is practically zero. in fact history has shown that NEVER happened. "Data suggests that stock markets don’t perform especially well in the wake of Fed interest rate cuts. the performance of the S&P 500 for one year after each of the 29 Fed rate cuts from 1994 to March 2020 and found that returns held steady in the immediate aftermath of the cuts, but after a year were down approximately 10%." Is this time different? Will we JUST fall 10 percent on average a year later? Some have argued that the political situation we are in is also the same as the past. In both cases blinders are firmly in place.
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I was thrown by the magnitude of the rebound last week exceeding my targets. Markets don't care what my target are but in order to "see" a major reversal here we should not hold at these levels for more than a few days. If we do this bubble gets stretched even further.