CHARTS_CCI_SYSTEM

[gdl]

After reviewing the earnings and projections along with weak consumer spending, higher costs, inflation at a forward P/E of over 18 there is no room to push the market higher. Commo Sense tells me this is a final move right here. The most recent inflation data confirms nothing has altered the original assumptions. The silly projections that in 6 months we see healthy earnings is based on a fairy tale. no recession but at the same time LOWER Fed Funds Rate and a consumer willing to spend more even though we had the most historic job creation in decades already?

Not sure how or when because the charts are still useless and so is any system. I do know the FED will conform to consensus and raise 25 basis points and hold at that rate till more data comes in. Market is expecting that. Coinciding with a slew of reports that will confirm or deny the street assumption that Inflation is weakening.

China report from over a month ago.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/china-s-reopening-fuels-demand-adding-to-us-inflation-74386112

JOB jobs jobs. Same week as fed decision. At best we keep adding jobs at a good clip and Stagflation will be the theme till the stock market crashes. the FED wants and needs to see a much weaker jobs market. It is the main driver of Inflation.
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There is NOTHING for last weeks data or earnings or movement that makes me believe we are about to embark on longer higher stock prices. if anything the news was contradictory to lower inflation, costs and stronger spending. in fact the worse of all possible scenarios is STILL playing out.
I have read repeatedly the STREET expects no more rate hikes after May 3rd and an immediate reversal? That's so insane that it has NEVER worked while keeping the stock market out of a Bear market. NEVER! In fact the *DAY* the FED announces a reversal in policy we will already be in a recession and stock market in a BEAR market. This too has ALWAYS been the case. Name me ONE TIME it was beneficial. But hey we are in the same delusional stage where a mountain of facts will prove the front runner for GOP Presidential run is a rapist, 2 time impeached, 4 time indicted treasonous psychopath hell bent on totally destroying our republic from within. And the VOTERS approve!

So tell me, are we headed for another Pandemic tsunami or will we shrug it off as we have already? INSANE TIMES! Every day new disgusting revelations from all the branches of government get reported with a yawn. THATS the same mentality as the stock market. I just cant envision many more months of the market holding together.

Crazy thought process and this is how i adjust my "emotional" initial responses. Analyze, collect data and adjust accordingly. Can't see 4500 on SPX this year or in 10 years. Like the final weight of the slow justice system favoring the rich and powerful we are at a stage of finality.
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I have a hard rule when making these claims. If it breaks my targets I abandon my assumptions. DOW has ONLY 500 points to go to BREAK MY RULE! I do NOT expect it will reach there. November highs should stay INTACT for "my" assumption to stay intact.