Focusing primarily on providing government-sponsored health insurance plans (mostly Medicaid and, to a lesser extent, Medicare and Marketplace insurance), Molina Healthcare (MOH) is a major health insurer. As of Dec. 31, 2022, the company's membership base was nearly 5.3 million. This explains how Molina Healthcare's market capitalization is just shy of $16 billion, which makes it the seventh-biggest health insurer in the U.S.
As one of the major medical insurers in the country, Molina Healthcare could continue to be a powerful growth stock in the future. Market research company Precedence Research anticipates that the global health insurance market will compound by almost 7% annually, from $2.2 trillion last year to $3.8 trillion by 2030. Organic growth from rising frequency of chronic medical conditions paired with acquisitions leaves the company with a lengthy growth runway.
This is why analysts believe Molina Healthcare's non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted earnings per share (EPS) will grow by 17.8% annually over the next five years. For context, that is well above the healthcare plans industry average annual growth outlook of 12.7%.
Yet, the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.6. Putting this into perspective, that is significantly below the healthcare plans industry average forward P/E ratio of 13.5. Thanks to its above-average growth prospects and below-average valuation, I believe Molina Healthcare could deliver annual total returns around 17% over the next five to 10 years.
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