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Wednesday, April 05, 2023 2:14:40 PM
Looming Debt Ceiling Crisis 2011 Déjà Vu
By: Almanac Trader | April 5, 2023
Let’s not forget about the looming debt ceiling crisis. It is the same political set up as pre-election year 2011: Democratic President with a split Congress composed of a Democratic Senate majority and a Republican House majority.
The banking crisis may have been averted, at least for the time being. War in Ukraine drags on, but it still appears more like a protracted Cold War 2.0 scenario that the market has shrugged off. The earnings trough may indeed be ending. But! Let’s be devil’s advocates here.
The standoff in 2011 between the White House and House Republicans is eerily similar to what’s developing in 2023. Markets topped out on the last trading day of April 2011 and entered a mini-bear phase with S&P down 19.4% on a closing basis before bottoming on October 3.
2011’s Worst Six Months were negative with the Dow down 6.7% and S&P down 8.1%. NASDAQ’s Worst 4 Months July-October were down 3.2%. S&P finished the year essentially flat at -0.003%, Dow was up 5.5%, NASDAQ was off 1.8% on the year.
Uncertainty & headwinds can take a bite out of usual pre-election year gains. Heeding our Best 6 Months MACD Sell Signal when it triggers will likely be the prudent course of action. Review your portfolio. Get prepared to lock in these BSM gains, sell losers & tighten stops.
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DiscoverGold
By: Almanac Trader | April 5, 2023
Let’s not forget about the looming debt ceiling crisis. It is the same political set up as pre-election year 2011: Democratic President with a split Congress composed of a Democratic Senate majority and a Republican House majority.
The banking crisis may have been averted, at least for the time being. War in Ukraine drags on, but it still appears more like a protracted Cold War 2.0 scenario that the market has shrugged off. The earnings trough may indeed be ending. But! Let’s be devil’s advocates here.
The standoff in 2011 between the White House and House Republicans is eerily similar to what’s developing in 2023. Markets topped out on the last trading day of April 2011 and entered a mini-bear phase with S&P down 19.4% on a closing basis before bottoming on October 3.
2011’s Worst Six Months were negative with the Dow down 6.7% and S&P down 8.1%. NASDAQ’s Worst 4 Months July-October were down 3.2%. S&P finished the year essentially flat at -0.003%, Dow was up 5.5%, NASDAQ was off 1.8% on the year.
Uncertainty & headwinds can take a bite out of usual pre-election year gains. Heeding our Best 6 Months MACD Sell Signal when it triggers will likely be the prudent course of action. Review your portfolio. Get prepared to lock in these BSM gains, sell losers & tighten stops.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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