Corvus Pharmaceuticals Inc (CRVS)

[kenyonn2000]

Looking at refractory PTCL market size, which appears to be the initial indication and quickest path to approval for 818. PTCL cases are between 5-15% of NHL annually, which works out to roughly 4,000-12,000 patients a year (I believe this is US only and the incidence worldwide is almost double, but I may be wrong). Let's say 8K US for this back of the envelope. Most of them will eventually progress. If you figure the refractory cases are about 70% a year, that's an initial patient pool of about 6,000. Corvus has said they believe about 70% have ACL levels at 900 or above. So that's 4,200.

One thing I'm not certain about is whether 818 would potentially treat all PTCL cases with ACL over 900, or only some of the PTCL subtypes. But for this calculation let's consider all of them. Orphan drugs for small populations command a high price point, so let's say Corvus charges $150,000 per patient. Total market would be 630 million.

Of course they're interested in expanding to other indications, and then there's the potential auto immune market, which is huge. But this indication alone, even though small, could support eventual annual sales of 250-500 million and a market cap between 1-2 billion in my opinion. This make sense? Any major mistakes here?