Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[FOFreddie]

Hey No Name - what do you think about Jason Thomas from Carlyle?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-12-16/carlyle-managing-director-on-inflation-video

He has a knack for being right. Here is what he said about the GSEs when he was part of the GWB Admin at the NEC. This was in March of 2008 a full 6 months before the Conservatorship - 2 months before the GSEs raised billions of dollars from public investors and 5 months before Congress passed HERA.

Who is more prescient - you or Jason Thomas?

Government Bailout Is Necessary, Likely, And Potentially Helpful

Fannie Mae is demonstrably a failed social experiment. A realistic assessment of its balance sheet shows
its net worth to be overstated by tens of billions of dollars and the company to be already insolvent.
Even with all its accounting legerdemain, Fannie's losses are an accelerating horror show, with
shareholders losing $1.5 billion in 07Q3 and $3.7 billion in 07Q4. Those losses are just the beginning.
As shareholder capital gets wiped, the government will have no choice but to seize the company and
place it in conservatorship or receivership. Importantly, mortgage-backed security holders guaranteed
by Fannie Mae will see no losses. The government will likely allow debt holders to fare okay, with either
no or token losses, perhaps 1%.
Shareholders, both common and preferred, are likely to be left with nothing. However, these
shareholder losses have already been locked in by the company's credit decisions over the past few
years and cannot be helped. It must be remembered that Fannie is the biggest mortgage risk holder in
the biggest mortgage crisis.
A fully government-owned guarantor of mortgage debt might be exactly what is called for given the
current housing crisis. While various proposals have been floated to expand the FHA to meet this role, it
has neither the infrastructure nor the expertise to address the broader mortgage market. A nationalized
Fannie Mae would be refocused to directly address the various problems of illiquidity, affordability, and
sustainability in the mortgage market. Without the need to satisfy a fiduciary duty to shareholders,
Fannie might finally be able to perform its affordable housing mission in a helpful and proactive manner.

https://ypfsresourcelibrary.blob.core.windows.net/fcic/fcic-docs/2008-03-08_Treasury_Email_from_Hason_Thomas_to_Robert_Steel_Re_Source_document_for_Barrons_article_on_FNM.pdf