I have no idea. I was trying to divvy up the shares in my head earlier today, and I thought more about Aeon's portion. Aeon has $110 million dollar stake before Blackrock. I think Blackrock values the equity of the business at $1billion. Blackrock's underwriters say that Boxed's assets are worth $42 million. Today the shares hit ~$25million.
The SaaS deal with Aeon is a $20 million note alone, and I'm not sure what the ColaVita deal is worth nor the VTEX deal. That $20 million, a healthy portion, is due to both Palantir and Google over the next few years. Boxed is obviously more of a "supply-chain" technology stock than it is a retail stock. They say that they can build fulfillment centers for $1 million (don't quote me on the one million, cause I need to double-check) and start producing within 45 days. Spresso reminds me of Shopify or Washington Post's Arc Publishing. And Boxed needed to run trials with its own CPG biz in order to refine Spresso-- the purchase and subsequent development, thereby, having come from necessity: a beauatiful expression of evolution.
Spresso likely displaces the need for a respectable fraction of conveyors and track systems recently installed and up for renewal. I think about the effect Boxed is going to have on Siemens logistics biz, bc Siemens builds out software and hardware for those "rollers" on production lines that look like conveyer belts. Siemens is WAY behind on this front.
My point is that I can def see value in Boxed's Spresso/ fulfillment center biz; and I think that this is what interests suitors.
Can the deal get done? No clue. IMO, these Seven Oaks folks are the same types of people as the class action law firms who get hired as a way to drive down stock prices... or maybe esquires out there who partner to buy up junior tranches of junk consumer debt and pose as reputable attorneys.
I can't see Aeon buying in only to flip their share on the public market.
What I can see is that the real deal is likely being made by Blackrock and Aeon. I see Aeon owing at present ~20%, Blackrock 20%, and D&O owning %10. So it is very easy for me to see Aeon aiming for 51% control... or... a buyout of the remaining 50%. Keep in mind, I have no idea how much each party owns in this.
So I don't know. This is so much more fun than getting blindsided. Within ~10 days, Blackrock is in poss or a deal has been reached. As I said in an earlier post: Shylock, Merchant of Venice. I seriously thought that Shylock had won until he didn't.
My hunch is that a deal gets done bc Aeon doesn't want to lose the $110 already invested, which is what would likely happen if Blackrock takes possession of Boxed's assets. Blackrock is in a great position. But, then again, maybe they're not. Maybe any "deal" by Boxed and a suitor minimizes Blackrock's stake, and Blackrock has no option but to sell to the highest bidder. What do you think?
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