Friday, March 03, 2023 8:35:13 PM
It honestly shouldn't matter. There is no earthly way that this enterprise valuation makes any sense at all. I've been in the institutional markets for 20 years and I've never seen anything like it. If it was going into liquidation, that's what would've happened. It on the OTHER side of chapter... yet, for some reason, no one wants to shake the thing loose and do actual price discovery.
I'm not sure if it's because it's a tobacco play, because it's just totally forgotten about, because they are stuck on the Pinks, because the debt holders destroyed the liquidity (and should've taken it private probably) to a degree that makes it fully uninteresting... or some other reason that won't hold for very long... but there's just no earthly way.
The simple, inescapable fact is that this company is a meaningful and important part of the global supply chain for some very powerful customers who do not want to do what they do. It's been that way for about a century and it doesn't appear that anyone wanted to change it enough to do more than a simple reorganization.
Owning the equity with this ratio in the capital structure is about the most powerful option-like trade I've ever seen. I know it sounds crazy, but the thought that this stock could go up thousands of percent is actually pretty rational.
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