I do have you on ignore, but sometimes I can’t resist seeing what you are stirring up.
I’ll ask
Would collapsing wages and a terrible ISM print be bullish or would you be pointing out the terrible print as evidence that the market is irrational? Which of the things you bring up have a history of predicting market direction?
There is a difference between analysis and merely talking your book. This is the latter.
As far as credit card balances on an inflation adjusted basis they looked higher in 2019. And this is an area for caution given interest rates, but it’s a thimbleful of data in an ocean of information.
I’m cautious, but there are a lot of swirling data points, and not all of them agree, but what seems obvious is you would deem positive data negative, and negative data negative seemingly because the only way your trades could be going bad is because everyone is irrational.
In any case pointing out macro information that everyone already knows isn’t analysis and isn’t useful.
We all know:
LEI is weak
Housing is weak
Oil inventories are high
ISM service prints are strong
ISM manufacturing is weak
Inflation has ticked up
The yield curve is inverted
If we could just plug in a handful of indicators and know market direction we would all be rich.
