Niocorp Random thoughts
1. If the US Gov dishes out a loan to Niocorp when might this announcement come? I would think not prior to the next update BFS report. It seems most logical that everyone involved would want to know the updated and total projected initial CapEx as well as confirmation of projected annual resource output including REEs. So… not before merger.
2. Has the current resource offtake agreements actually slowed down the US Gov loan initiative? Maybe yes. ¾ of all niobium for the first 10 years has been pre-contracted to ThyssenKruppp, a German owned corporation. It certainly didn’t take the German Gov loan program long to commit conditional funding.
3. Why hasn’t Niocorp committed the final ¼ of Niobium to an offtake? Is it precisely because it’s been part of the negotiations with US Gov Loan agreements? Is only one quarter of all niobium over the first 10 years enough to secure ~$500-$800 Millions in Loans? Of course there is also Scandium and Titanium. Much of this, it would seem, would need to be contracted to US Corps (car manufactures?) and or US Gov reserve piles. So Maybe. But I’ll bet the magnetic rare earth’s are the real carrot here to push this program over the top. Once again we will need to wait until updated BFS is released.
4. What is a reasonable PPS post merger? Am I correct in thinking there will be ~1 billion shares outstanding at this point? Maybe a bit higher? Am I also correct in thinking we will have ~$300-$350 in cash depending on GXII redemption percentage. If the new BFS shows Niocorp will need $1 Billion in CapEx to complete the build and fire up the mine then obviously this merger is a major step to reaching this goal. At this point what will the market put the probability of getting to the little red shovel? I think it will be pretty high. There is already precedent of $700 Million loan given out to a US lithium mine. If the market believes in a high probability of getting to $1 Billion in cash then what is a reasonable PPS based on cash per share? It would have to be a multiple of this? 2x, 3x, 5x? Higher?
5. Do we get to 2x, 3x, 5x PPS to cash per share prior to the reverse split? I think this depends on the timeline from merger to uplisting to the NASDAQ. Will there be enough time for the BFS to be completed? Is this even a timeline goal for the company? In theory it makes zero difference although there certainly is a huge psychological difference. Will we get any sniffs of how the rest of the CapEx requirements will be secured? Gov Loan??? Even after a reverse split… lets say worst case scenario 1:10. What would a reasonable PPS be with $300 to $350 Million in Cash with a reasonable expectation of getting past $1 billion in cash? There really is no way we drop below a market Cap of our cash value, at least I wouldn’t think so. Yes I have to say I’m very optimistic at this point.
