Hello raw, it's quite clear when looking at the bond market as well as the whole market in general. No one believes the fed. He's lost all credibility. The only thing that really points to a solid recession coming is the inverted yield curve. Even if we see 2 quarters of neg GDP growth a "the real definition of a recession" if most likely isn't going to feel like one with a 3.9% unemployment rate. Powell is in one way getting what he wants a slowing economy, as earnings and call projections show. He needs to continue to see it in the CPI/PMI data in the coming months. IMO inflation is going nowhere anytime soon, and i mean years! At some point he'll be forced to go the way of Japan and just concede, it's also imo that has been the plan all along. Strengthen the banks as they did back in the 70's for a decade plus. Banks can now finally make money. Who's the FED? Our central banks, which is made up from our banks. Citi and JPM hold the most assets as of 2018. I don't see them being able to play this game for only a couple years at best due to the 33 trillion $$ of debt. By 2025 only Social Security/ Medicare will likely be more than the interest we are paying each year on this debt. Yes, that's mean more than our military.
2023 i see the Dow challenging to make a new high. I think the S&P will be positive ending the year in the 4200/4400 range, with big tech pulling up the rear. Most young traders/investors only know tech. A historical chart will quickly show anyone that when tech crashed or ".com crashed 2000/2001" it took 15 years for the Nasdaq to regain its highs from 2000. The markets will be a traders market, meaning paying individual stocks will be better than trying to play an index to make the 7% to 10% market long term avg. With that said the OTC has most likely bottomed out on 12/28/23 and we should start to see more larger buyers coming in and speculating in 2023 with rate's stabilizing. GL have a good weekend bud. BYOC
