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Re: In Plain Sight post# 19253

Friday, 01/13/2023 2:45:08 PM

Friday, January 13, 2023 2:45:08 PM

Post# of 21240
I agree with what you wrote...and laughed at the "merge their way to greater debt". I also had to chuckle at the tweet you included. I have heard that person (who is newer to the industry then probably all of us on this board) talk about free cash flow as a criteria before...but I am not sure at the time even he didnt know exactly what he was talking about, more just echoing buzz-words. He and I tend to analyze the industry the same...more operation based and not chart oriented...but I have tried to have a simple discussion with him in what he considers a 'top tier' company. He essentially told me, liquidity and SCALE -- as in just straight size matters. I think his main reasoning to scale was simply someone larger will pay big money for the footprint. Obviously that is where he and I differ. I think straight SCALE can come back to bite a company...especially when they overpaid for assets in locations where the environment is not conducive to growing the plant (and even more so if interstate commerce happens)...and also overpaying without considering cost compression; not if, but when. Well I tried to convey that it wasnt ONLY scale as in size, but scale with efficiency. At the time I was brushed off. Glad to see he just might be coming around.
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