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Re: cabel post# 5844

Monday, 12/26/2022 10:26:26 AM

Monday, December 26, 2022 10:26:26 AM

Post# of 11373
I will try to put some detail on these PRs you are quoting

First strategy for Battery Electric (highly important to get revenues flowing).
The Chargepoint PR is all about this enabling customers to order their "skid" which will enable storing enough electricity to power the superchargers required for fast charging class 8 trucks reasonably quickly. Nikola/chargepoint can install the charging units anywhere but you need the electricity into your facility and that is the blocker for adoption in all the EV market and especially trucking.
So the deal with Chargepoint makes it easier for customers to buy trucks and chargers AND a way of charging the chargers from on site batteries . It doesn't help the strategy for truck stop chargers - which may end up having to install hydrogen tanks and fuel cells to provide enough energy to charge > 1 truck at at time. But will allow return to depot orders to be shipped.

Now for hydrogen.
Nikola and Nel are building a hydrogen "hub" in Arizona (PR 1 in your sequence). This is under construction now and they just ordered a liquefaction capability from PLUG to enable storing liquid hydrogen. not sur eof an in service date but expect it is before the second half of 2023
This hub will then deliver liquid hydrogen to the relevant refueling stations that they instal for their customers depots or as part of a network of highway stations along the routes their customers will be taking
Since they offer Hydrogen fuel cell trucks with hydrogen included in the lease it is important that they can provide the stations. They know for instance the routes Budweiser will want to take once they go beyond a return to base daily route. This is the reason for the Travel Centers of America deal for those specific routes.
The southern california stations recently announced are part of this network. The hydrogen will be supplied from the Arizona hub hence the need for liquid hydrogen to make the cost of transport economical. Long Beach is an ideal location for FCEVs working near 24 hrs a day with quick refuelling compared t hours for batteries.

As for the rest of the country it isn't clear why Nikola should carry the burden of installing their dispensers along highways that should be Travelcenters of America, Flying J, Route 66 etc doing it and refueling any class 8 truck by themselves. With suitable software the billing can be to a Nikola customers lease easily enough - Tesla has perfected this model of sharing locations.

It certainly isn't likely that Nikola will build any more hydrogen hubs from financial perspective. Hydrogen is a commodity (or will be) .

BUT early adopters will still need hydrogen at their home bases and want to sel to the whole country (all current H2work is in the West coast ). NIkola could install NEL electrolysers etc but seem to have taken the lower risk and easily expanded route of installing the tanks and dispensers but then contracted with PLUG for 1200 TPD (up to) for hydrogen around the USA. This will allow customers to have FCEV trucks that are limited to 400m (800 mile round trip) routes until highway stations (or end destination stations) are available to refuel. It will still be Nikola providing the fuel under their leases, just it is delivered by PLUG.
Around ports that is a long range and many companies will need trucks for these shorter routes before putting them onto the highways for long distance routes.

It should be noted the Amazon and Walmart have a lot of distribution centers with Hydrogen infrastructure from Plug but so far no sites have been upgraded to include class 8 refuelling although that would be reasonably easy and quick and allow large numbers of FCEVs to be shipped across the country

Also note the company is likely to get a large cash contribution from the infrastructure bill for their hydrogen hub up to $1.4Bn is possible.
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