Inflation retreat puts world's biggest bond ETFs on pace for a blowout quarter
6:18 pm ET December 13, 2022 (MarketWatch) - By Joy Wiltermuth
Biggest bond ETFs on pace for some of the best quarterly gains on record,
according to Dow Jones Market Data
The world's biggest bond exchange-traded funds continued a dramatic rally on Tuesday after cooler consumer-price
data indicated the Federal Reserve has made more headway in its fight to tame high inflation.
Shares of the mega $85.5 billion Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) climbed 0.7% Tuesday, helping to put the
world's biggest bond ETF on pace for a roughly 3.3% quarterly gain, according to FactSet data.
If the advance holds, it would mark the best quarterly gain for the fund since the fourth quarter of 2008 when it rose 5.7%. And it will be the ETF's third-best quarterly gain on record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Vanguard's fund hasn't been alone in attempting to end a gut punch of a year in financial markets on a high note.
Shares of the world's second-largest ETF bond fund, the $82.9 billion iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, (AGG) also gained 0.7% Tuesday, putting it on track for a 3.3% quarterly gain, according to FactSet. That would be the BlackRock Inc. (BLK) fund's second-best quarter ever, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Like stocks, bond funds have been hard hit this year, along with the underlying assets they trace, as the Fed has rapidly jacked up interest rates to pull inflation down from painful levels last seen in the 1980s. ETFs in recent years have become a popular way for individuals to gain exposure to bonds.
The pair of ETFs track a cross-section of highly-rated U.S. bonds, giving individuals exposure to Treasurys,
mortgage securities issued by giants Freddie Mac (FMCC) and Fannie Mae (FNMA),
as well as corporate debt of major American banks, according to FactSet data.
The mortgage-bond focused $23.9 billion iShares MBS ETF (MBB) rose 1% Tuesday,
with its preliminary 3.8% quarterly gain on pace to eclipse its top quarterly record of 2.7%
set in the fourth quarter of 2008.
"There are certainly parts of the bond market doing really well," Matthew Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas research at State Street Global Advisors, told MarketWatch, pointing to Tuesday's gains for investment-grade and high-yield corporate bond ETFs as standouts.
The $38.2 billion iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) advanced 0.9% Tuesday, while gaining 7.1% on the quarter so far according to FactSet. The $18.6 billion iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was up 6.6% for the quarter.
Appetite for riskier, longer-duration bonds could signal optimism about the Fed's ability to strike the right balance on inflation, Bartolini said, without overtightening financial conditions.
"This is going to be one big balancing act," he said. "You are going to be constantly navigating hope versus reality. The hope is that the Fed pivots on policy and slows its path of rate hikes," he said, which could provide less negative pressure on growth in 2023 and ease fears of a prolonged economic recession.
The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points on Wednesday. It now also appears to be making more progress on inflation, after a series of jumbo rate hikes lifted its policy rate to a 3.75%-4% range, the highest in 15 years.
As reported Tuesday, the rate of consumer inflation fell to 7.1% in November, from 7.7% a month before. Notably, it's sharply down from a pandemic peak of 9.1% in June.
The Fed, however, has committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% annual target, even if triggers pain for businesses and households.
High inflation erodes the value of bonds, which in the past decade have been producing low yields. Stabilizing rates, at today's higher bond yields, might finally provide bond investors some relief.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate was pegged at 3.5% on Tuesday, while stocks closed higher despite giving back a chunk of their earlier gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 103 points, or 0.3%, after it climbed about 700 points at peak intraday levels. The S&P 500 index advanced 0.7%, according to FactSet.
Despite the quarterly rally, shares of the AGG ETF remained about 12.8% lower on the year so far, according to FactSet, while those of BND were down roughly 13.1% for the same stretch and MBB was off 11.5%.
See: Why the consumer is 'critical' for investors to watch in 2023 as bear market 'not yet complete'
-Joy Wiltermuth
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 13, 2022 18:18 ET (23:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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