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The Power of History
Morocco could end European and South American dominance over the World Cup.
By German Lopez
Dec. 13, 2022, 6:39 a.m. ET
You’re reading The Morning newsletter. Make sense of the day’s news and ideas. David Leonhardt and Times journalists guide you through what’s happening — and why it matters.

If you watched all of the 21 previous men’s World Cups, you would see winners and runners-up from only two continents: Europe and South America.

This year’s World Cup could be different now that Morocco has qualified for the semifinals, making it the first African country to get this far in the soccer tournament.

Morocco will play France, the reigning champion, tomorrow. (The other semifinal match, today, is another European and South American affair: Croatia versus Argentina.) If Morocco beats France, it will be the first country outside of Europe and South America to make it to the final.

Today’s newsletter will look at why two continents have dominated the world’s most popular sport for so long.

Self-fulfilling prophecy
History is reflected in today’s World Cup. The tournament was a European invention, first held in 1930 by soccer’s global governing body, FIFA, after disagreements with the Olympics’ handling of the sport. European powers also spread the game more widely in places they had colonized, and it quickly took off in South America. The first World Cup was even hosted by a South American country, Uruguay.

That history gave Europe and South America a head start, which over time turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy. European and South American countries had historical roots in the World Cup and performed better in the tournament, so organizers made room for more teams from those continents. But because Europe and South America got more slots, other continents had fewer chances to break out.

Consider the World Cup slots set aside for Europe and Africa: Each continent has nearly the same number of teams. But Europe got 13 qualifying slots for the 2022 World Cup, while Africa got just five.

Money also plays a role. Based in some of the richest countries in the world, European leagues, teams and governments can spend more on developing better soccer players and programs. The world’s best players go to Europe to play in its highly lucrative professional leagues, widely seen as the major leagues of men’s soccer. “Europe is the bank of football,” said my colleague Rory Smith, who is in Qatar covering the World Cup.

Because of its historical success in soccer, South America also has more infrastructure than other continents to develop players and host top-notch, competitive leagues. It’s another way that the self-fulling prophecy has played out.

Public interest matters, too. The U.S. is a very wealthy country, but it has historically done poorly at the World Cup. That trend is partly explained by American apathy toward the sport; a star athlete in the U.S. is more likely to follow the culture, fame and money to, say, American football instead of soccer.

All of these factors culminate in soccer’s social networks — the conferences, leagues, teams, training grounds and informal gatherings in which players and coaches learn to perform at their best. Europe and, to a lesser extent, South America are at the center of these networks. These networks then perpetuate European and South American dominance.

Notably, Morocco is closely tied to the European network: It neighbors Spain, and many of its players were born in Europe and play in its professional leagues. “They all have access to European ideas about soccer’s best practices,” Rory said.

Changing times
Is Europe’s and South America’s grip over soccer easing? Morocco’s success is one sign that it may be. And so is Qatar’s hosting of the current World Cup, far from the European and South American centers of power.

The next World Cup could shake up the game further. Its initial rounds will include 48 teams, up from 32, allowing for more geographic diversity in who qualifies. (And a huge shift from the just 13 teams that participated in the first World Cup, in 1930.)

Still, there are also signs that little has changed. The other three teams remaining in this year’s World Cup are from Europe or South America. If anything, Europe has become more dominant, even over South America, in recent years: European teams have won the previous four World Cups, dating to 2006.

So it’s too early to know if Morocco’s success is a sign of a bigger shift for African teams. “It’s hard to say whether this is the start of something, because we have not seen it before,” said my colleague Tariq Panja, who is also in Qatar covering the World Cup. “It has to happen again to make it a trend.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/briefing/morocco-world-cup.html