Mish<>Nearly the Entire Yield Curve is Inverted From 6 months to 30 Years
Chart Notes and Synopsis
On the horizontal axis, F stands for Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR). The 3 and 6 represent months. I extrapolated rates between years equally. A few days ago the 10-year and 30-year bonds inverted and remain inverted. The EFFR is 3.83 percent. It is inverted with every bond of 5-years duration and longer. The Fed will likely hike rates next week by 50 basis points. That would put the EFFR at 4.33% and invert the EFFR with every bond of 2 years duration and longer. The 20-year bond trades little and is an anomaly best ignored, effectively making nearly the entire chart inverted. Treasury Yields May 24 to December 9 2022
Treasury Yields May 24 to December 9 2022
Significant Inversions
The highly watched 2-10 inversion is (3.57-4.33) 76 basis points. The 1-year note is inverted with the 10-year note by (3.57-4.72) 115 basis points. Yellow highlights represent a period that the treasury did not issue 30-year bonds.
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