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Saturday, 12/10/2022 4:41:46 PM

Saturday, December 10, 2022 4:41:46 PM

Post# of 648882
Mish<>Nearly the Entire Yield Curve is Inverted From 6 months to 30 Years

Chart Notes and Synopsis

On the horizontal axis, F stands for Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR).
The 3 and 6 represent months. I extrapolated rates between years equally.
A few days ago the 10-year and 30-year bonds inverted and remain inverted.
The EFFR is 3.83 percent. It is inverted with every bond of 5-years duration and longer.
The Fed will likely hike rates next week by 50 basis points. That would put the EFFR at 4.33% and invert the EFFR with every bond of 2 years duration and longer.
The 20-year bond trades little and is an anomaly best ignored, effectively making nearly the entire chart inverted.
Treasury Yields May 24 to December 9 2022

Treasury Yields May 24 to December 9 2022

Significant Inversions

The highly watched 2-10 inversion is (3.57-4.33) 76 basis points.
The 1-year note is inverted with the 10-year note by (3.57-4.72) 115 basis points.
Yellow highlights represent a period that the treasury did not issue 30-year bonds.

CHARTS at link
https://mishtalk.com/economics/nearly-the-entire-yield-curve-is-inverted-from-6-months-to-30-years
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