Okay, I'm going to try and make a guess as to what kind of revenues might be in store for ASTA, from the Bullet Barrier products only, even though I think the security products from ASTA could become the mega-revenue sleeper here!
When I was looking at conventional window coverings at TheShadeStore.com, it was not uncommon to find prices between $300 and $500 per shade. Considering the ballistic shades are quite the specialty item. I'll guess they could cost a decent premium above those prices, maybe $700 - $900 per shade. So I'll use the $700 price and will guess that ASTA might get 20% of that as their cut, or $140 per shade, and/or door barrier..
I'm also only considering the K-12 school market. In Texas, a Google search shows 5,156,962 students enrolled in 8,161 schools. That would be 631.9 students per school. I'll take a reasonable guess at 30 students per classroom which would mean 21 classrooms per school on average.
Now, I'm make another guess that there are 4 products per classroom (1 door and 3 window barriers) as some schools have few windows and some have a lot. So I'll just use 80 products per school times $140 cut to ASTA would mean $11,200 revenue from each school.
So if BBP could sell into just 2% of the schools in Texas in 2023, or approximately 163 schools, that would become $1.82 million in annual revenue. That sounds reasonable as a sales team certainly should be able to close 1 sale every 2 days.
A Google search also reveals 130,930 K-12 schools in the U.S. If BBP could just tap into 1% of those schools every year, that would be 1,309 schools times $11,200 per school, or $14.7 million in revenue annually. But that would mean it would take 100 years to sell into all of the schools, assuming no growth in the the total number of schools.
My guess is that a well-established sales force that has already been selling into the K-12 market will easily close much more than 1% of all of the K-12 schools in the U.S. I encourage you to try out your own numbers, guessing as to how much revenue ASTA might make for each roll-up door or window shade.
Your guess is as good as mine. I just like to look at the bare minimum potential revenue that I think ASTA could bring in, giving me an idea of their long-term revenue potential. So my guess is that they should easily be able to do $5-$10 million in revenue in 2023 for the BBP products only as Texas only represents 6.2 percent of all the schools in the U.S. If the company sold into 2% of the schools nationwide, that would represent $29.4 million in revenue.
$5 - $10 million in revenue in 2023 is my low end guess. That makes it a low-risk investment for me as I know that also have the Punchzee app and then who knows what kind of mega-sleeper licensing agreement that might have racing down the pipeline for the Paranotek security products.
In fact, if you go years back into the posts, the ultra revenue potential for Paronotek licensing, from my perspective, is that the Federal Govt. is moving closer all the time to requiring that there is strict security associated with online Federal contracts. For me, the ballistic barrier products, along with Punchzee, simply represent the sweet icing on top of the cake in terms of revenue potential. It's the security products that still have my primary attention, though these other two product lines could become huge in and of themselves.
Just guessing. Not investment advice. Good luck in your own due diligence.
