Sunday, December 04, 2022 4:53:23 AM
My take on thecurrent situation with Antibe:
With a current $25M CAD m/c I think the risk/reward setup here is about 20% risk for 300%+ reward leading up to the phase 2 acute otena readout by late 2023. Worthy of a on of due diligence since there’s been a lot of costlyhiccups with this company but the shares are currently trading as though none of the underlying fundamentals matter at all.
The company has more than enough cash to fund the ph2 trial. They have pivoted from chronic to the acute pain market which, while smaller annual peak sales, offers a far more de-risked pathway to positive ph2 readout results and inevitable commercialization/buyout post ph3. The IP reformulation also demonstrably helps de-risk the results with a more rapid onset and significantly reduced dosing regime. This could enable them, once funds allow, to go back to chronic otena for a ph3. But the sweet spot is here and now for those with funds and about one year of patience.
What I’ve learned with biotechs is know your company very well but as important, know the cycle of when time and money are on your side or when they’re against you. All in my opinion.
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