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[Tuff-Stuff]

"very, very serious" mix of headwinds

Staying on the chart above, when I look at the rate of change on the lower panel in Fed funds between 2014 and 2018, the move in 1016 was well above - about 50% more - than the 2005 high. Now it looks like it was a ripple on a coffee cup but at the time it was huge. During that period, the PPO moved all the way to the top side of the range over 4 years. We don't know the effects of this current test using this new one-year-rate-of-change-additive but we are forcing through a massive rate of change in one year. Looking at the 40 year expanding wobble on the PPO momentum indicator and the 'we won't have another economic event in my lifetime' rate of change indicator, it's hard to imagine this doesn't heat up the bearings or worse, throw a piston through the block of the economy, slamming it to a halt. This interview today from the Treasury Secretary - I don't see a recession on the horizon.

I don't have any way of knowing what the future will bring, but it is fair to say it has the potential to unleash something we haven't seen in a 1/2 century. I don't know if economic cycle models will work. I don't know if commodity cycles can override the effects of these monetary cycles. I only know what I can see today and compare that to history