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Friday, October 28, 2022 10:26:44 AM
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Global demand is forecasted to jump to 185 kt for lithium, 90 kt for cobalt and 925 kt for nickel within the next 20 years.
Lithium is forecasted to have sufficient supply until at least 2025 but hydroxide will face a shortage by 2027 as demand for nickel surges. Lithium prices continued to rise in 2021 due to the restraint in supply as a result of the pandemic and the higher demand recorded in China and Europe. Lithium prices have climbed 71% for carbonate, 91% for hydroxide and 58% for spodumene concentrate. BloombergNEF expects all prices to continue their rally but gradually plateau as more supply comes online in 2021-2022.
The nickel sulphate market is forecasted to remain in balance in the short term despite the expected demand in the next 5 years. Domestic demand in China was relatively low as some automakers shifted to Lithium iron phosphate chemistries. This will have limited impact in the adoption of nickel-rich battery cathode chemistries, and as such, the nickel sulfate market balance may slip into a 128,000 metric ton deficit as early as 2024.
Cobalt prices are forecasted to hold as the metal prices rose by 42% during the first half of 2021 on the London Metals Exchange. In March, cobalt rose to $53,000 per ton, it’s highest price since March 2018 and 15% above the five-year average. The cobalt metal price could average $45,000 per ton year-end 2021. With the market projected to be relatively in surplus throughout the decade, BloombergNEF expects prices will hold at an average of $44,000 per ton up to 2025.
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