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Thursday, October 06, 2022 10:52:12 AM
These are tough times for all investors and few are having it worse than the cannabis community. It’s been a humbling 600-day period. We are in an 80% drawdown in an illiquid sector that no one cares about. But, things can change quickly. If we get a political spark, sentiment will shift and I expect a strong fourth quarter. Absent progress, performance may be lackluster with smaller, high-debt businesses becoming increasingly risky.
We will also be at the mercy of the broader macro picture. If the stock market rallies, we may bounce regardless. On the flip side, we could get SAFE while equities are selling off and the reaction will be more muted. I don’t have an edge in making these short-term predictions, so I remain focused on the businesses that have the best long-term prospects in a variety of scenarios. (Like revinue/mso)
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