Top Ships Inc (TOPS)

[Anite]

Competing for US Supplies

The US will be thrust into the role of the world’s incremental fossil fuel supplier this winter. Buyers in Europe will seek supplies of US distillate fuel oil, especially low-sulfur diesel. They will compete with consumers from South America who already purchase significant volumes. LNG buyers in Europe will also compete with customers in Asia for US gas exports. And firms seeking to ship natural gas out of the US will compete with domestic customers. Consequently, US domestic natural gas, distillate and diesel fuel prices could rise substantially in the coming months. The increase could be extraordinary, especially since inventories remain very low — providing no real cushion in the event of a major hurricane disrupting natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico and/or refining operations in Texas and Louisiana.

Energy markets are also being disrupted by credit constraints. Months ago, energy traders called on central bankers to provide liquidity for transactions and were rebuffed. Although subsequent declines in oil and gas prices, combined with seasonal reductions in energy consumption, have eased those pressures, the relief may be temporary. Energy forecasters now warn about dramatic price increases this fall, and credit issues will re-emerge if prices stay at those levels for long. The capital constraints limiting trader activity could also magnify a hurricane’s price impac