Savvy Trades and Investments

[researcher59]

NG storage levels are well above the 5 year low for late September. Back in late September of 2018, according to EIA historic data, storage was at 2768 Bcf and NG prices closed the month at $3.01/mcf. This year storage is at 2977, so 209 Bcf higher than back in 2018, yet NG is now at $6.90/mcf versus a mere $3.01 back then.

Furthermore, due to a 7% y/y domestic production increase along with increased imports from Canada, stimulated by sky high prices, the storage deficit to the 5 year average is shrinking. The latest weekly EIA report shows the deficit at 306 Bcf versus 354 Bcf just two weeks ago.

Freeport is due to come back online in early November with about 2 Bcf per day of exports, but that's modest relative to daily domestic production of around 100 Bcf. If the winter starts out warm, we could be in a surplus situation by January and NG prices could plunge back to historic norms. jmho

The EIA historic storage data can be downloaded to Excel from this link -

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

SBOW, SD