The Friday rundown of indicators remained sharply bearish (23-bear and 4-bull). The bull-signs are from 2 types of indicators (1) Fosback signals, because new-highs are low, and (2) a couple of “oversold” indicators. Markets can remain oversold for some time so we can’t put too much value in those. The Fosback indicators have been bullish for a while, but I think we need to see zero new-highs before we see a low on the S&P 500. Here are the Bear signs:
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-There have been 13 Distribution Days over the last 5 weeks.
-23 Sept was a bearish, >90%-down-volume day.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for 3 days in a row below 50% for my “correction-now” signal. – It hardly matters now.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 30 Aug.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 22 Aug.
-21 Sep was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both below the 20-dEMA. (The 5-day is below the 10-day so short-term momentum is bearish too.)
-VIX is rising quickly.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-McClellan Oscillator is negative.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is down.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is falling.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are under-performing the S&P 500 and falling so I’ll call it bearish.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling. This is one of my favorite trend indicators.
- 29% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-S&P 500 is underperforming the Utilities (XLU).
I'm holding SH and SDS positions.
