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Post# of 42555
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Monday, 02/12/2007 7:08:52 PM

Monday, February 12, 2007 7:08:52 PM

Post# of 42555
USD/CAD modestly extended its Friday losses to 1.1708/10
before drifting back up to retest its broken uptrend during the North American
afternoon at 1.1760. A big slide in oil prices helped temper the euphoria
surrounding the Loonie after Friday"s astoundingly strong Canadian employment
report. Crude tumbled more than $2 in the wake of comments from the Saudi oil
minister suggesting the oil market is in balance and no further production cuts
are needed. Traders came to regard the comments as a signal that oil is destined
to trade in a Saudi-approved $50-60 range and rushed to take profits on longs.
Trade figures from both sides of the border will be the highlight of tomorrow"s
session. As dealers seek to work out which is wrong, the strong employment or
soggy GDP figures, they will scour the Canadian data for signs of latent
economic strength.
The US trade deficit is expected to hold below $60 in
December as the weaker USD and strong global growth boost US exports. Moderate
oil prices should help as well. US fiscal deficits continue to fall amid record
government tax revenues, a sign of strong economic growth.

I have a strong feeling the Canadian Trade data is gonna be shit tomorrow. The Canadians are creating new jobs out of nowhere but the economy is NOT following. I am strongly betting on the job data being wrong.

Even if the job data is right, the PRODUCTIVITY is way down because the newly hired people are MARGINALLY contributing.
I am long USD/CAD ... lets see what happens tomorrow.

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