Bio Investor conference
I just wanted to share some thoughts after listening to the presentation. There were no surprises. I do enjoy Cox's talks - it's an exciting time!
Cox specifically noted that they are following the current discussion (in the US congress) on FDA approval of follow-on biologics very closely. It is nice to see they would like to take advantage of any opportunity there.
In the Q&A after the talk, Cox mentioned the possibility of building a small (12-15 person) sales force internally that would be capable of handling US sales of ATryn for hereditary deficiency (while remaining open to the possibility of partnering with a large company for expansion into acquired deficiency markets such as DIC).
I am pleased with the careful and deliberate approach they are taking in building this company. Obviously, with so many exciting programs, one would like to move forward as quickly as possible, and it could be tempting to dilute the crap out of the stock to raise funds to do so. However, I am now fully of the impression that they have the goal of building a very significant company through organic growth, providing maximum return to current shareholders.
This is definitely an opportunity for the patient investor. Which is a polite way of saying that full-realization of the company's value could still take some time. Cox presented the timeline for likely news over the next two years (which Dew posted earlier). I think significant near-term upside in the stock price will require surprises on the news front. Possible surprises include:
1) better-than-expected efficacy observed in Merrimack's phase II rheumatoid arthritis studies for Alphafetoprotein, and a high profile partner for that program (I think the news on this will come in the June time-frame, if I remember right).
2) GTC partnering either the Alpha-1 Antitrypsin (rAAT) or CD137 programs, allowing those programs to progress to the clinic more quickly than expected.
3) GTC partnership on another external program (like the Merrimack partnership).
4) upside surprise in ATryn sales in Europe.
I listed these possible surprises in what I think is the order of likelihood.
Good luck to all. Remember, Cox said that their patents with the broadest allowed claims sat in the patent office for about 20 years before approval. We need to try to be at least 1/10th as patient as the folks who are building this company.
vH
