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Saturday, September 03, 2022 4:35:48 AM
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I don't think net assets tells you much. There are companies with no assets that have billions of dollars in market cap. And there are companies that have billions of dollars in net assets but a market cap of only 10's of millions. There are even companies that have huge value but are not allowed to book the assets under US GAAP (Think oil companies with reserves or land use rights that have to be booked at cost). Or other types of intangible assets.
We do know what the company reported for 20/21. Close to EPS $20 after dilution (based on 16.2M shares). And we also know what a conservative formula for intrinsic value could be. Simply multiply by 10 (representing a growth rate somewhere between 5% and 10% annually). Which could be as much as 100 if the company really grows fast but we are not going to assume that for now.
You can also look at historic numbers as they can be helpful. This stock traded in the $20 - $40 range 5 years ago. At a time when they probably didn't have any earnings or assets (before dilution, based on 6.9M shares). At the other (extreme) end, it traded as low as $1 recently. But that was before they reported EPS $20 for 20/21...
Or you could argue that the stock is worth what you can get for it. In which case it has no value yet. But that is a really silly approach because we know that the new SEC rules governing trading on OTC are really stupid
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At least we will have the dividends. You can argue if they deliver here (4 x $0.48 annually) and we use a dividend yield of 10% very conservatively then the stock is worth close to $20. But I don't like that approach personally. But at least it will give you some (rock bottom) value.
Personally I would use $20 x 10 = $200 reflecting the "mental value" as you said. I like that. But it really is each to your own. Or as they say in the US, YOYO (You are On Your Own). It could be much more or much less in a few years from now.
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