Fannie Mae (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

Really?

Why should they? New investors won't care about the fate of 2022 shareholders because the two main actions that the government took to screw shareholders happened in 2008 and 2012.

If new investors want previous shareholders to be treated "fairly", they would demand compensation be paid only to whoever held shares on September 6 2008 and August 17 2012, regardless of if they still own those shares, because those are the shoes the new investors would be stepping in to.

There is nothing this (or any future) administration can say or do that can completely assure new investors that another conservatorship and/or NWS won't happen again. Especially when the Supreme Court said that the NWS is an authorized action of FHFA as conservator. The only way to hedge this risk is to keep lowering the per-share SPO price until the market clears. And the things the government did in 2008 and 2012 only serve to make that price rather low indeed.

At one point there had been speculation that some current common shareholders could be asked to contribute money towards the SPO, but that hope is all but gone now. With AGTHX selling all of its common shares, there is only one known common shareholder of any consequence left (Ackman), who bought some juniors in 2017-2018 in part because "it hedges our risk of a restructuring that disproportionately benefits the preferred versus the common shares". That's a direct admission by Bill Ackman that he both thinks the juniors could outperform the commons, and that he won't be able to do anything about that (other than buy junior prefs).