Al-Sadr looks to lie low, outlast U.S. By HAMZA HENDAWI, Associated Press Writer
Sat Feb 10, 2:44 PM ET
BAGHDAD, Iraq - Their rhetoric is still stridently anti-American, but Mahdi Army militiamen are tucking away their weapons and blending into civilian life. Their leaders are keeping out of sight.
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In the streets of Sadr City, the strategy of Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shiite militia leader, is clear: Lie low, avoid a showdown and hope to emerge even stronger after the Americans leave.
Gathered for prayers this week, at least 10,000 al-Sadr supporters raised clenched fists and chanted "No, No to America." Later, a black-turbaned cleric addressed them, dressed in a white shroud to signal readiness for martyrdom.
"They claim that the Mahdi Army is made up of terrorists," Mohanad al-Moussawi said mockingly before delivering a tirade against Sunni political groups he accused of sponsoring terrorism.
Religious ceremonies charged with fiery rhetoric are common among al-Sadr loyalists. But with a massive U.S.-Iraqi security operation getting under way to pacify Baghdad, the Mahdi Army and its political masters are sending out assurances that it has no wish to fight.
A ragtag but highly motivated militia that fought U.S. forces twice in 2004, the Mahdi Army is blamed for much of the sectarian strife shaking Iraq since a Shiite shrine was bombed by Sunni militants a year ago. U.S. officials have for months pressed Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to move against the militia, but he has so far done little to comply, largely because he does not want to lose al-Sadr's support.
Suggesting that al-Maliki's reluctance to act against Shiite militiamen endures, U.S. military officers told The Associated Press that their Iraqi counterparts were urging them to go after Sunni targets as the first focus of the military push to secure Baghdad.
They said the Iraqis, especially representatives of the Shiite-run Interior Ministry, played down the threat posed by the Mahdi Army, the biggest Shiite militia, blamed for much of the violence against Sunnis. The American officers spoke on condition of anonymity because the subject is sensitive.
Salam al-Zubaie, one of two al-Maliki deputies and a Sunni, told the U.S.-funded Alhurra television Saturday that he would prefer to see the military sweep in Baghdad simultaneously target Shiite and Sunni neighborhoods. "This will reinforce confidence in the government by all sects of the Iraqi people," he said.
Hundreds of Mahdi Army militiamen were killed in the 2004 fighting, but al-Sadr bounced back, joining the political process, rebuilding his militia but not softening his anti-American rhetoric.
With his militia now widely seen as the main threat to Iraq's unity and high on the list of targets for the Baghdad security operation, al-Sadr is likely to do all he can to dodge a crippling blow to his militia, analysts say.
Residents of Sadr City, a sprawling district of some 2 million Shiites in eastern Baghdad, say militiamen opting to remain in the area have moved in with relatives and friends to avoid arrest.
According to residents familiar with the militia's tactics, and speaking anonymously for fear of reprisals, weapons are hidden in places like grocery stores, ice cream and soda kiosks, or underground.
At Friday prayers, al-Sadr's aides in Sadr City were not in their usual front row spots, and the handful who came swapped their clerical robes and turbans for casual wear.
Mahdi Army militiamen dressed in civilian clothes were out in force, with hundreds searching cars and frisking worshippers headed to the prayers. None openly carried weapons. At checkpoints into the entrance of Sadr City, militiamen in track suits and running shoes stood shoulder to shoulder with police commandos.
Security around Sadr City has been tightened in recent days. Access to the district, once known as Saddam City, is now controlled by Iraqi Army checkpoints where soldiers randomly search cars and check the identity of drivers and passengers.
Much is at stake for al-Sadr and his militia in this third attempt by U.S. and Iraqi forces to calm the capital since al-Maliki came to office last May.
Al-Sadr loyalists occupy 30 of parliament's 275 seats and fill six Cabinet posts. Surviving the latest security sweep while it weakens Sunni rivals would enable al-Sadr to project his power more assertively in Baghdad.
"I expect it to be 12 months or less before the Americans withdraw from the cities and stay in bases outside," said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, or ICG, a Brussels-based think tank. "Whoever survives this Baghdad security plan will have a better place in the vacuum that follows a reduced American presence."
Tribal chiefs from Sadr City known to be loyal to al-Sadr sought to assure U.S. and Iraqi army commanders in a meeting Thursday of their support for the Baghdad security plan. They argued that they too wanted rogue militiamen brought to justice, according Abdul-Hassan al-Kaabi, the head of the local Sadr City government who attended the meeting.
"We support the security plan," he said in an interview. "We told them that we will help them find them."
Nassar al-Rubaie, who leads the Al-Sadr loyalists in parliament, argued in an interview with Iraqiyah, an Iraqi TV station, that the militia is an ideological organization, and he sought to shift the blame for the sectarian violence to outside powers and Sunni rivals.
"Foreign hands are stoking sectarian strife," he said.
But the analysts say clashes are almost inevitable in an all-out military operation to detain or kill the Mahdi Army militiamen in Sadr City.
Those fighting back would be seeking martyrdom or provoked by perceived transgressions like raiding homes or humiliating men in front of their families, said Peter Harling, an Iraq expert based in neighboring Syria.
"But the overall strategy will be restraint," said Harling, also with ICG. "Mahdi Army fighters can redeploy in southern Iraq and return to Sadr City when it's all over to avoid arrest."
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