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Re: Crawfors post# 41200

Tuesday, 07/12/2022 4:30:35 PM

Tuesday, July 12, 2022 4:30:35 PM

Post# of 51620
Charlie Munger

If you can’t stomach 50% declines in your investment, you will get the mediocre returns you deserve

.

Yes, this was my 6th or 7th big multi-dollar otc runner over the years, all but one was a waiting game very similar to frustrated shareholders similar to here. And if this runs again, probably my last. Finding a winner and staying the course to reap the rewards is a mix of hard work and luck, very few have the luck and tenacity. My first one I was flipping and missed over 500k, so I wouldn't recommend that strategy-- dollar cost over time in the downtrend the best in my opinion, sell big spikes if you want but no exposer is dangerous because the start of the run is usually always unexpected.. Even then it is hard to find winners (only 4% of russel 3000 give 5x returns over 60% losers). And holding on the winners as they cycle through big drops.




https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522140-how-to-handle-big-losers?mailingid=28324397

They have reviewed the historical distribution of 8,000 stocks trading on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ over 23 years (1983-2006).

The takeaways are fascinating:

2 out of every 5 stocks are money-losing investments.
1 out of every 5 stocks is a terrible investment (losing 75% or more)



Looking more specifically at individual stock returns compared to the Russell 3000 index, other conclusions emerge:

Most stocks can't keep up with a diversified index (64% under-performed the Russell 3000 during their lifetime).
4% of stocks underperformed the index by 500% or more.



Even the winners are hold to hold onto, most of the runners I've been in, the early investors sold early

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424006-what-takes-to-hold-winners?source=all_articles_title

Take Apple in the past 40 years:

The stock has fallen more than 75% from its previous high several times.
During the financial crisis, the stock fell more than 60% in January 2009.
In January 2019, more than a year before COVID, AAPL was trading almost 40% down from its previous high in the context of tariffs on Chinese goods and a lower revenue guidance.



All, imo.
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